Why Keshi Deserves Benefit of the Doubt

When I ran the rule over Stephen Keshi’s Super Eagles just three months ago, it was on the back of a 0-0 draw against Mexico in Atlanta that raised a few questions about Nigeria’s World Cup prospects. With just a few days left before Nigeria take the field against Iran in Brazil, things are a little clearer – at least we now know which 23 players will be defending the national colours – yet, the Eagles 1-2 loss to USA in their last warm-up match seems to have raised some other questions.

Of course, the composition of Keshi’s squad in itself has been the subject of much debate over the past week or so, the main surprise being the exclusions of Nations Cup hero Sunday Mba, Real Betis man Nosa Igiebor and the precocious Ejike Uzoenyi, to make way for the less-regarded Michael Uchebo, Rueben Gabriel and Babatunde Michael. Also in the squad – to the chagrin of some, the pleasure of others – are captain Joseph Yobo and striker Peter Odemwingie, two veterans who have been on the outside over the past 18 months or so.

It’s fair to say much of the reaction has been negative, some going as far as accusing Keshi of sabotaging the Eagles for his own selfish ends. Considering that the Eagles have also played out three uninspiring friendly matches in that time – they also failed to beat Scotland (2-2), Greece (0-0) – I can’t say I’ve been surprised by the outcry. You’re only as good as your last result in this game, even if these were friendly matches in preparation for the real thing.

Before I get into my take on this World Cup squad though, here are four reasons why I think, agree or disagree with his picks, Keshi deserves the benefit of the doubt:

1.) Afcon 2013. Not just that the Eagles won; more that they won with that squad. I know bringing this up will give rise to that usual refrain: the World Cup is different. Yes, it is. But regardless of how low the Nations Cup ranks in your estimation, very few – if any – fans or pundits, thought Keshi’s squad would be good enough to win in South Africa. Definitely not after the first three shaky games. Yet they did. With five home-based players – two of whom would become regulars- and 17 players who were going to a major tournament for the first time.

2.) Kenneth Omeruo. It’s easy to take for granted now, in retrospect, but the facts are worth looking over again: the veteran team captain misses a game due to injury, yet can’t win his place back because the coach has decided to leave an untested 19-year old in his place. Beyond that, the youngster is paired in central defence by a home-based defender who’s also playing in a major tournament for the first time. It’s like, John Terry got injured at Chelsea and Jose Mourinho brought in Tomas Kalas to fill in - and then left Kalas in the starting role even after Terry recovered – and all this in the latter stages of the Champions League. That sure takes guts.

3.) Ogenyi Onazi. Given that he “owns” the defensive midfield spot now, it may be hard to remember that the Lazio midfielder actually started the Afcon on the bench, and made his first appearance as a substitute right back – filling in for the suspended Efe Ambrose (and conceding a penalty) against Zambia. Indeed, he only got his chance in the middle after the clumsy Fegor Ogude got suspended for the Ethiopia match.

4.) Sunday Mba. Another player that started Afcon on the outside looking in. That is until Keshi decided he had seen enough of Igiebor and put his confidence in the then home-based player. His crucial goals against Cote d’Ivoire and Burkina Faso are now part of the historical record –as, of course, is the fact that he missed the final cut for Brazil.

What these four reasons underline for me is that Keshi has led this team with integrity and courage, making difficult decisions and standing by them, when it would have been easier to go with the popular options. Those are traits that would serve anyone well in a managerial capacity.

It also shows a manager whose opinion is not set in stone, a manager who is willing to pick players on merit, as he sees it, with little room for sentiments and little regard for reputation. Omeruo, Onazi and Mba convinced Keshi with their performance on the field, and in the process unseated erstwhile regulars, Yobo, Ogude and Igiebor.

In contrast, Ikechukwu Uche, another whose exclusion has infuriated many, did not take his opportunity when it came in South Africa. Whether he should have been given another chance to prove his worth is another debate (and I hear disciplinary issues came into play here), but the Villareall striker clearly failed to impress in his three appearances at the Nations Cup.

That Keshi then went on to leave Mba out of his World Cup 23 only further underlines this point: it would have been far easier, even if only for sentiment, to have left the Nations Cup hero in the squad - it would certainly have earned few popularity points - and some have couched Keshi’s decision as some type of betrayal. I see it as further proof of a coach determined to make his decisions purely on the basis of the players’ performance in training.

Of course, that is not to say that Keshi is infallible. He can make mistakes, like any other person, and if he’s made any serious ones with this squad, it won’t be the first time a World Cup manager has done that. See Fabio Cappello (England) and Marcello Lippi (Italy) at the last mundial.

And I am not arguing that he shouldn’t be criticised for mistakes. Just that recent history leads me to reserve judgement till the World Cup is done.

Now, having said all that, I will admit that the World Cup squad gives me some cause for concern. Three areas in particular:

1.) The lack of options in defence. It’s clear that Omeruo and Godfrey Obaobona remain Keshi’s first choice in central defence, and that Ambrose and Elderson Echiejile, under normal circumstances, would be his preferred full backs. Beyond those four though, the pickings are pretty slim. Yobo regained his place in the squad and brings tons of experience, but the captain is well past his best years; Azubuike Egwuekwe, decent but limited, has been a squad regular for a while now, and played in Omeruo’s absence at the Confed Cup last year; and the home-based Kunle Odunlami was a stand-out at CHAN earlier this year. It’s a clear drop in quality, but those are at least centre backs. Full back cover is even worse: beyond left back Juwon Oshaniwa, who will now start since Echiejile’s injury means he won’t play in Brazil, there are no other full backs in the squad. That means, should either Oshaniwa or Ambrose – a converted centre back to start with – go down with injury or pick up a suspension, one of the centre backs will have to fill in. That’s far from ideal for the World Cup and its surprising that it’s forward Uzoenyi that has been recalled to make up for Echiejile’s absence.

2.) The top heavy attack. On the face of it, naming four central strikers in a 23 man squad is not out of the ordinary – provided one intends to start with two upfront. Keshi’s squad includes not only top scorer Emmanuel Emenike and Odemwingie, but also Shola Ameobi and Uche Nwofor, yet if he perseveres with his preferred 4-3-3 system only one will take the field at any time (unless desperation sets in, or Keshi reverts to a hitherto untried 4-4-2). Even granting that Odemwingie could also play out wide or as an attacking midfielder – even if the last two friendlies suggest otherwise - when you add the wide men (Victor Moses, Ahmed Musa, Michael Babatunde & Uzoenyi) that still leaves 8 players fighting for three positions. Compare that to the midfield, the all-important engine room, where 5 players compete for three spots, or to that glaring dearth of full back options we broached earlier, and one wonders if resources could have been better used elsewhere.

3.) The midfield conundrum. As I mentioned in March, the one sticking point in Keshi’s seemingly settled first team was that troublesome third midfield role to complement the indispensable efforts of Jon Obi Mikel and Onazi. It was a problem at the Nations Cup, at the Confederation Cup and, worryingly, it remains problem now, right on the eve of the World Cup. With Mba, Nnamdi Oduamadi and Igiebor all out of the mix, Keshi’s search for that elusive number 10 has continued in the last four friendlies, in which he has played Uchebo, Ramon Azeez and Odemwingie with none of them particularly convincing. Another option could be to move Mikel further upfield and pair Onazi with either Azeez, or Gabriel, a really controversial pick who has hardly played club football all season after spells with Kilmarnock in Scotland and Waasland-Beveren of Belgium.

The experimentation, it appears, will continue into the World Cup proper. Not the most ideal of situations, but not unusual for many countries at the Mundial. Indeed, many countries stumble upon their best team half way through the tournament – kind of like the Eagles did at last year’s Afcon – if they haven’t been eliminated yet. Keshi will need to find solutions pretty quickly, or else the Eagles World Cup could be over before they know it.

On the whole, I think the Eagles have a strong enough first XI to qualify from their group. That doesn’t mean they will though. Bosnia Herzegovina deserves more respect than many Nigeria fans are according them – think Miralem Pjanic,Edin Dzeko, Asmir Begovic, and Vedad Ibisevic - and Iran have a brilliant manager in Carlos Queiroz.

Of course, it doesn’t help that the first choice has already been depleted by the absence of Echiejile. Any further depletion – through injuries or suspension – would easily test the depth of this squad, and that’s where I fear they may be found wanting.

If the small details fall into place, particularly with regards to tactics, fitness and discipline, the second round is a real possibility. Otherwise, the Super Eagles could just as easily be on their way home after three matches.