Sunday, April 3, 2011

Usual Suspects & Banana Skins

There’s a lot to be excited about as the Champions League quarter finals take centre stage this week. Heck, I’m so excited I’m writing again.

Seriously, I simply can’t wait for hostilities to commence and a quick glance at the remaining contenders for club football’s biggest prize is enough to explain my glee.

Experienced defending champions Inter Milan; a sublime Barcelona side that have won this cup twice in the last 5 years; 2008 champions Man Utd; the galacticos of Real Madrid – with two-time winner Jose Mourinho at the helm; Roman Abramovich’s Chelsea – finalists in 2008 and semi-finalists four times in the last six seasons, and also led by a two-time winner in Carlo Ancelotti. And then there are the potential banana skins represented by Tottenham, Shakhtar Donetsk and Schalke 04.

But beyond the cast of usual suspects and tricky underdogs, the quarter final and semi final draws also throw up several must-see scenarios.

Top of the list, at least for anglophiles (and who isn’t in these days of Premiership hegemony?) must be the Man Utd v Chelsea match up, a clash of England’s top teams of the last five years and a rematch of the 2008 final. Both sides have been far from their best this season, even if the Reds still sit atop the Premiership with 7 games to go. Injuries may well be the game changer here, and its Man U that are hurting the most, with Rio Ferdinand out for most of the season and Nemanja Vidic just returning to the side. Even with Wayne Rooney’s recent renaissance and the emergence of Javier Hernandez, it’s hard to see how Man U’s inexperienced defense and “over-experienced” midfield – Paul Scholes and Ryan Giggs – will get past Ancelotti’s team over two legs. The Blues certainly have the defence and midfield for the job – John Terry, Ashley Cole, Michael Essien and Frank Lampard – but they’ll have to sort out the attacking situation post-haste. Fernando Torres still resembles the out-of-sorts striker of South Africa 2010 and Didier Drogba looks even more unsettled since the Spaniard’s arrival has seen him spend more time on the bench. If Ancelotti can sort things out, Chelsea should get their revenge here and reach yet another Champions League semi final.

Inter Milan miraculously saw off Bayern Munich in the round of 16 and they return to Germany to take on Schalke 04 in the quarters. I doubt this will be the cake-walk everyone expects though; you don’t get past Valencia, as Schalke did, without being a decent side, even if the Germans have since fired coach Felix Magath. His replacement, former Hoffenheim boss Ralf Ragnick is one of the most progressive coaches in world football and should get the best out of a Schalke team brilliantly bookended by national team goalkeeper Manuel Neuer and evergreen Spanish striker Raul. Yet, a rejuvenated Inter Milan should have too much in the tank for Schalke. The defending champions are hardly purveyors of the beautiful game, yet the team Mourinho built - now coached by Leonardo – is full of game savvy and street smarts, as well as a good number of big game players. Dutch schemer Wesley Sneijder is back to his brilliant best and there’s the ever prolific Samuel Eto’o (Africa’s greatest ever?). Inter should shake off the disappointment of their Milan derby loss and progress to the last four to set up one of those mouth-watering scenarios I alluded to earlier – a semi final against the winners (whoever that may be) of the Chelsea v Man U tie.

If anything, the other side of the draw could turn up an even bigger clash, if the form book proves true, and Real Madrid and Barcelona pull through to set up one more El Clasico match-up, in a season in which they are already scheduled to add a Copa del Rey Final to their two La Liga games.

First the quarter finals though, and both Spanish giants will start as firm favourites to come through unscathed against two clubs experiencing the rarefied air of a Champions League quarter final for the very first time. Indeed, Tottenham, in their debut campaign have adjusted with remarkable ease, banging in more goals than any other team in the first round and seeing off AC Milan in the last round. Their exciting, in-your-face attacking attitude as been quite refreshing to watch and in Gareth Bale they have one of the break-out stars of the season. Rafael van der Vaart has also been a revelation, proving an outstanding partner for the towering Peter Crouch since arriving from Real in the summer.

But, I think Real Madrid will prove a bridge too far for Harry Redknapp’s lads. For one thing, the Madridistas have Mourinho on the bench. Love him or loathe him, there’s no denying the quality of “the Special One”, especially when he has a squad of superstars at his beck and call. This isn’t the unbalanced Galacticos of a few years back; Sergio Ramos, Pepe, Carvalho and Marcelo look pretty solid in front of the superb Casillas; Alonso and Khedira do the heavy lifting in midfield, where Mesut Ozil conducts for the trio of Ronaldo, Angel di Maria and Karim Benzema (or the returning Gonzalo Higuain) upfront. It’s hard to pinpoint a weakness in this team at the moment – even if Ronaldo, Benzema and Marcelo may well miss the first leg through injury – and I’d be really shocked if they failed to reach the semis.

Barcelona should await them there, although they will find Shakhtar Donetsk anything but pushovers. Shakhtar may represent Ukraine but this team, coached by the Portuguese-speaking Romanian Mircea Lucescu, is almost as Brazilian as the Selecao itself, with no less than 8 Brazilians on the roster. They won 5 of their 6 first round matches to top Group H ahead of Arsenal, and then beat Roma, home and away to get this far. Those are pretty good creds and Barca will have to watch out for strikers Eduardo and Adriano Luiz – each with four goals so far – as well as the likes of Jadson and Douglas Costa in midfield, and experienced full backs Darijo Srna and Razvan Rat.

For all that, it will be the upset of the year if they can overcome Pep Guardiola’s Barcelona. What else is there to say about the best team in the world? It’s not just that they have Pique, Puyol, Iniesta, Xavi, Villa and Messi, it’s the way they weave their pretty little patterns around the pitch and always find a way past the tightest of defences.

Now, I’m all for shocks and surprises – all part of the beautiful game for sure – but I have to say that I hope this quarter final round goes to the favourites.

Why? Well, Man U fans will disagree, but I really can’t think of a more exciting semi final round than one that reads:

Inter Milan v Chelsea
Real Madrid v Barcelona


That’s my last four pick. What’s yours?