Euro 2012 Final: A Fine Line

It comes down to Spain v Italy as Euro 2012 wraps up in Kiev on Sunday evening. But before I get into the whole “who will win” and what not, it’s worth noting one key thing. There’s often a fine line between victory and defeat in championships of this kind.

Strategy and tactics aside, these things often come down one or two key moments over the course of a match. History seldom recalls this though. Spain will be playing for a unique place in the history books – three straight major titles – on Sunday, and have been unbeaten in the knockout phase of a World Cup or Euro since France put them out in the second round of the World Cup in 2006.

In the light of that, and the seeming aura of invincibility that seems to surround this team, it’s perhaps hard to recall the many pitfalls that they narrowly escaped along that journey. We all think about that successful 2008 team now, yet they weren’t that super in the quarter final clash with Italy, which they only won after another nervy penalty shoot out. They were worthy winners against Germany in the final, but for once the Germans dominated possession and had their chances. But it came down to one moment of determined brilliance from Fernando Torres to win the cup.

In the same vein, pundits have repeatedly criticised Spain for a litany of failings at this finals. I believe the essential thrust of the argument is that the defending champions haven’t done enough to put opponents away in their 5 matches to date. The insinuation is that they have been below par and are yet to completely dominate any match so far. There is some truth in that, but to me, the criticism suggests that they had been consistently dominant in the past, sweeping all before them on their way to the last two titles.

Yet, when we cast our minds back to the World Cup in South Africa, Spain hardly blew any one away on their way to the final. Indeed, they were in immediate danger of elimination after losing the very first match to Switzerland. Then, after winning their next two matches, they negotiated a series of tight 1-0 wins – 4 in a row - before claiming the World Cup.

There were lots of narrow escapes along that path too, not least in a well-contested quarter final clash with Paraguay when, first Nelson Valdez had a goal disallowed – some say wrongly – for a borderline offside call; and then Iker Casillas stopped Oscar Cardozo’s penalty after 60 minutes to keep Spain in the game. Indeed, had Holland’s Arjen Robben put away the couple of chances that fell his way towards the end of regulation time in the final, we wouldn’t be talking about a Spanish era today.

And so into another final we go. Spain, as I believe they have done in the past, have found just enough to get through tight elimination games, and now face an Italian side that has slowly gained everyone’s admiration as the tournament as progressed. Cesare Prandelli’s tactical flexibility has been well taken on board by a squad of determined, experienced and talented players, and as they proved in their semi-final defeat of Germany, the Azzurri boast a commendable mix of defensive steel, midfield graft and clinical finishing to trouble the best of teams. Much has been made of the guile of Andrea Pirlo and the unpredictable Mario Balotelli, but the other bits of this team are just as important. Gigi Buffon in goal is as good as any ‘keeper in the world; Daniele de Rossi brings tireless running and versatility to midfield and Antonio Cassano – surprisingly ignored amidst “Mariomania” – can be a tricky customer on his day. I expect Italy to carry on as Croatia and Portugal before them and look to deny Spain the space to play their short passing game – at least anywhere near their penalty area. Pirlo will be crucial again, as one well-placed pass off his right peg is enough to set up the most cutting counter attack.

Enough has been written about Spain. Their passing game remains the hallmark of all that they do, even if opponents seldom make things easy for them anymore. That has meant the hub of their play has been pushed back and Xabi Alonso now sees more of the ball than Xavi. That`s not necessarily a bad thing – Alonso`s having a great tournament. The one missing spark from their teams of the past is the dynamic wing play of Sergio Ramos, now playing alongside Pique in central defence. For all his industry, Arbeloa just doesn`t carry the same offensive threat.

Four big questions:

Will Spain change their approach to stop Pirlo? I doubt that. Such is la Roja’s belief in their principles that they seldom change for anyone. Nor will they leave him with all the room in the world though – a la England. One thing that`s usually left forgotten in discussions about Spain is how well they defend as a team. True, their dominant possession is a defensive tool in itself, but when they do lose the ball, they work extremely hard – and very well – to win it back.

Will del Bosque go striker-less again? He says he`s starting with three attackers but I don`t think it matters. They`ve played both ways so far and it`s been the same story. There may be changes though. David Silva has struggled to make an impression of late and Pedro more than made a case for a starting role after his semi-final cameo on Wednesday, and his combination with Jordi Alba brought the Spanish left flank to life in extra time.

Which Balotelli will show up – the focused finisher or mad Mario? Who knows? I doubt Balotelli himself knows the answer to that one. I get the feeling he is aware of what`s at stake here and should behave – yet, if Spain over-dominate possession, and Italian frustration sets in anything can happen. On the other hand, a focused Mario could be the hero of the day.

As to who will win this one, it could go either way, but I won`t chicken out of making a prediction. Italy go in as underdogs – but not by much. In fact, many pundits are backing them to beat Spain. For me, they also have one thing going for them: no team has ever achieved what Spain is aiming for – three straight major titles AND back to back Euro titles. There`s a good reason why that`s never happened before – it`s damned hard – and the enormity of it may just prove beyond even this Spanish team.

But, I find it incredibly hard to bet against Spain. They`ve beat the odds so often over the past four years, surmounting every obstacle and proving they are a great team over and over again. I think they`ll pull this one off and enter a special place in the history books.

Oh, there was one more question. Who will win the battle of the beards – Daniele de Rossi or Xabi Alonso?

Enjoy.

Euro 2012 Quarter Final 2: Defensive Test for German Machine

Business as usual, or the biggest shock of Euro 2012? That’s the question that will be answered after favorites Germany and underdogs Greece slug it out in Gdansk this evening.

On the one hand, to even suggest that the Greeks have a chance of upsetting the Germans here would appear optimistic in the extreme, but considering that the 2004 champions have plenty of “previous” when it comes to upsets, it would be foolhardy to dismiss the Greek challenge. Their triumphant 2004 team not only beat hosts Portugal twice – opening match and final – they also took out defending champions France in the last eight. Add to that the much unexpected win over Russia that booked their quarter final place this year and its clear why matters are seldom taken for granted with this team.

Of course, this year’s squad is very different from Otto Rehagel’s vintage. Only midfielders Kostas Katsouranis and Karagounis remain eight years on and Fernando Santos has had to rely on an interesting mix of the old and the inexperienced who, despite gaining just one point from their first two matches, have scratched their way into this quarter final clash. The Greeks will work hard to resist what should be a German onslaught and much will depend on the composure and experience of young centre backs Sokratis Papastathapoulous and Kyriakos Papadopoulous, both of whom, incidentally, play in the German Bundesliga, with Werder Bremen and Schalke respectively. The suspended captain, Karagounis, will be a big miss in midfield though and chances will be few and far between for forwards Giorgio Samaras, Sotiris Ninis and Dimitri Salpingidis.

Germany have looked the most balanced squad in the tournament and were the only team to come through the group phase with maximum points. Joachim Low’s decision to rest his first choice strike force will be under scrutiny should his team struggle early, yet the new faces – Marco Reus, Miroslav Klose and Andre Schurrle – are hardly a huge dip in quality. The rest of the team remains intact with Jerome Boateng returning at right back after missing the last game due to suspension. Midfield playmaker Bastian Schweinsteiger is slowly returning to his best form after a season marred with injuries, and sidekick Sami Khedira has been bursting with energy and confidence after a successful season with Real Madrid. As always though, the key to Germany’s best attacking opportunities should be the mercurial Mesut Ozil, one of the world’s best number 10s.

Germany’s much-advertised game control and patience will be well tested by the obdurately defensive Greeks, but Low’s team should have enough in the tank to take this one by two goals.

Euro 2012 Quarter Final 1: Easy For Portugal

Roy Hodgson’s England raised a few eyebrows in Group D, Holland took the poison pill in the Group of Death, and Russia’s unexpected capitulation more than ignited what many thought would be the Group of Sleep. Yet, the pre-tournament favorites are still well in the running as Euro 2012 enters the quarter final phase this evening.

That’s not to say though, that Germany and Spain will have a free-pass to the final in Kiev come July1st. Indeed, such has been the nature of these finals that banana skins lie at every turn. Take for instance, Russia; who would have thought that a team that so easily brushed aside the Czechs 4-1 in their opening game, would be heading home after losing to Greece? Or Sweden, who after sloppily giving away leads against Ukraine and England, then turned on a superb performance to deny France top spot in Group D.

Given all that, today’s clash between the surprising Czechs and Ronaldo’s Portugal could provide yet another shock outcome – if the Czechs win. If any team looks likely to upset the odds and get the big prize ahead of the big two it’s got to be Portugal. Much has been made of Ronaldo’s lacklustre showing against Germany and Denmark – as well as his star turn in the Holland game – but, for all he brings, Portugal have a bit more going for them than the Real Madrid superstar. They look solid all over the pitch; Fabio Coentrao has been the stand out left back here and Bruno Alvez and Pepe form quite an intimidating partnership in central defence, if they can keep their physicality in check. The midfield may lack an obvious creative genius, but the trio of Miguel Veloso, Raul Meireles and Joao Moutinho provide tons of neat passing and box-to-box endeavour, leaving the inspiration to Ronaldo and Nani on the flanks.

They’ll be expected to see off a Czech Republic side shorn of their midfield star Tomas Rosicky, and Petr Cech will have to be at his best – something we haven’t seen at this finals – to keep out the Portuguese. He’ll hardly be encouraged by the fact that Ronaldo has smacked a tournament-high 13 shots on target so far. That will also have consequences for the Czech’s most potent attacking outlet, overlapping right back Theodor Gebre Selassie, who’ll have his hands full tracking the Portuguese captain. On the other flank, David Limbersky offers overlapping drive as well, and Michal Kadlec, from Bayer Leverkusen, is competent in central defence. Jaroslav Plasil and Tomas Hubschman will have to fill in the void left by Rosicky’s absence and the pair of Petr Jiracek and Vaclav Pilar, each with two goals so far, will need to be at their sharpest to make up for Milan Baros’ continued failings. Then again the former Liverpool striker could finally wake from his slumber.

This should be an easy win for Portugal.