Blocks of Five: Liverpool's Consistent Consistency

Consistency isn't a word that’s been oft linked to Liverpool Football Club over the past five years. But, as the 2013/14 Premier League season enters the home stretch, Brendan Rodgers' team owes its lofty place in the top four to that very word.

If I told you Liverpool have won three of every 5 games they've played in the Premier League this season, it would be understandable if you simply concluded that their 18 wins so far constitutes about 60% of the 28 games played so far - actually that is 64.28 % - hence my 3-in-5 average summation.

But you'd be wrong. Not in your math, of course. That much is correct, but when I speak of winning 3 in 5, I speak not of averages, but quite literally.

It’s rather remarkable, but if you divide Liverpool's League campaign into blocks of five games, starting in week one all the way through week 25, you’ll find exactly three wins in each block.
Liverpool started the season with those three 1-0 wins, then drew the next game 2-2 at Swansea before losing to Southampton at home in game 5.

BLOCK 1
Stoke	H	1-0	W
Aston Villa	A	1-0	W
Man Utd	H	1-0	W
Swansea	A	2-2	D
Southampton	H	0-1	L

The second block of five brought wins at Sunderland, and at home to Crystal Palace and West Brom, but also a 2-2 draw at Newcastle, and a loss to Arsenal at the Emirates.

BLOCK 2
Sunderland	A	3-1	W
Crystal Palace	H	3-1	W
Newcastle	A	2-2	D
West Brom	H	4-1	W
Arsenal	A	0-2	L

Even after a shock loss at Hull City followed a draw at Goodison park - to leave the Reds with just one win, against Fulham. - at the start the next 5 match sequence, Liverpool beat both Norwich and West Ham to maintain their run.

BLOCK 3
Fulham	H	4-0	W
Everton	A	3-3	D
Hull	A	1-3	L
Norwich	H	5-1	W
West Ham	H	4-1	W

And although back to back defeats at Man City and Chelsea put a dent in Liverpool's year end celebrations, they beat Tottenham, Cardiff and Hull to keep the same win quota.

BLOCK 4
Tottenham	A	5-0	W
Cardiff	H	3-1	D
Man City	A	1-2	L
Chelsea	A	1-2	W
Hull	H	2-0	W

The New Year has proved even more rewarding. The next 5 matches were negotiated without a defeat, even if draws at home with Aston Villa and away at West Brom were disappointing, leaving Liverpool with a now customary three wins out of five.

BLOCK 5
Stoke	A	5-3	W
Aston Villa	H	2-2	D
Everton	H	4-0	W
West Brom	A	1-1	D
Arsenal	H	5-1	W

It's not just the consistent 3-in-5 win quota though; a look at the points won in each of those blocks tells its own remarkable story.
Liverpool had exactly 10 points after the first 5 games and exactly 20 points after 10 games. Indeed, after 15 games they had ....yes, you guessed it…..30 points. Their 5-match points total did dip after those back to back December losses - to 9 points - which is why Liverpool's points total after 20 games was 39 points.

But they made up for that in the next block, winning 11 points - just enough to maintain their 2 points per game average and take them to exactly 50 points after 25 games.

LIVERPOOL
BLOCK	SEQUENCE	POINTS
1	WWWDL	10
2	WWDWL	10
3	WDLWW	10
4	WWLLW	9
5	WDWDW	11
6	WWW	9

Now, consistent as that is, a 2 point per game average won’t be enough to win Liverpool the title this season, although it might just do for a top four finish and Champions League qualification. As you would expect, the other three teams in the hunt - Chelsea, Arsenal and Man City - have been just as consistent, even better. Indeed, it would seem winning 3 of every 5 games is a minimum requirement for a consistent top four - or title - challenge. All these teams have done that and more. It’s just that it’s only Liverpool that has been steadily at the same level all season - winning 3, and no more, of every 5 games.

That can be a good thing - as Liverpool's place on the table suggests. Although a change in the right direction would be even better.

Take Chelsea, for instance. They also consistently posted 10 point returns for each of the first three 5- game blocks of the season, but have since stepped it up, gaining 13 points in each of the subsequent two blocks, and reaching 56 points after 25 games.

CHELSEA
BLOCK	SEQUENCE	POINTS
1	WWDLW	10
2	DWWWL	10
3	DWWWL	10
4	WDWWW	13
5	WWDWW	13
6	DWWW	10

Likewise Man City, who have finished the last two 5 game blocks with 15 and 13 points respectively. If they can keep that up with their games in hand, they'll be well placed to keep pace with Chelsea - whose 10 points from their last four games means they are well on track to complete another productive 5-game block.

MAN C
BLOCK	SEQUENCE	POINTS
1	WLWDW	10
2	LWWLW	9
3	LWWWD	10
4	WWWW	15
5	WWWWL	12
6	D	1

Arsenal, on the other hand, is in danger of falling off the pace. They've played three of their current 5-game block, winning only four points in the process. That the last two games of that sequence are away trips to Tottenham and Chelsea doesn't bode well.

ARSENAL
BLOCK	SEQUENCE	POINTS
1	LWWWW	12
2	WDWWW	13
3	LWWWD	10
4	LDWWW	10
5	WWDWL	10
6	DWL	4

Liverpool fans will of course hope that the current five game block yields more than three wins - especially since the Reds already have three straight wins ahead of this weekend's game at Old Trafford, and the trip to Cardiff City the following week.

BLOCK 6
Fulham	A	3-2	W
Swansea	H	4-3	D
Southampton	H	3-0	W
Man Utd	A
Cardiff	A

They’ll certainly need to improve their points per game if they are to keep their place in the title challenge – City and Chelsea won’t let up – but if they maintain the consistency that’s brought them this far, that Champions League place should be a reality come May.

Heck, they might even beat Arsenal to third place.

Keshi's Work in Progress

Here're a few things I learnt about Stephen Keshi and the Super Eagles after watching Nigeria's 0-0 draw with Mexico in Atlanta last Wednesday.

Keshi has pretty much settled on his first choice XI. The starting line-up on Wednesday - ten of them anyway - have been Keshi's default first choice since Nigeria beat Ivory Coast in the Nations Cup quarter final last January. With just three months left before the mundial kicks off - and friendly games few - it's hard to see any new faces breaking in and unseating one of these incumbents. Of course, there have been incessant cries for the inclusion of new faces - or more accurately, sidelined old faces - and Wednesday night saw Keshi hand debuts to four players. Michael Uchebo, the one "odd face" amongst the starters, played just behind striker Emmanuel Emenike; defender Leon Balogun replaced Efe Ambrose at the break - only to limp off injured after 20 minutes; Ramon Azeez came on for Uchebo; Ezekiel Imoh got a late cameo. They might yet prove useful additions to the squad - Imoh and Azeez got into some promising positions - but it's hard to make a case that any of them showed enough to usurp the incumbents.

Keshi loves speed. When you set up a team that includes Musa, Emenike and Moses, it only makes sense to use their pace, and the Eagles looked their most deadly on the counter attack against Mexico. The Eagles were well organized against the Mexican attack, Moses and Musa seating deep and allowing the full backs to squeeze the space down the channels. By when they won possession, they were quick in transition, and but for some poor decision-making, they should have created much better scoring chances. Musa's pace gets him into promising positions, but he needs to make better choices once there. Moses seems to have improved his work rate and defending - a consequence of his work at Liverpool perhaps - but he has to let the ball go a little earlier. His tendency to hang on to the ball a tad too long led him down blind alleys a little too often.

Keshi still needs a "number 10". I know, Mikel wears that number, but his controlling role from deep, even if more advanced than his defensive Chelsea role, is hardly that of a classic number 10 - creative, attacking, just behind the striker in a 4-4-1-1, in the "hole", as they say. Uchebo started in that role on Wednesday, and although he was energetic, contributed to the defensive effort, and looked decent in the air, he didn't show that much on the attacking end. I think Keshi has always found that position a difficult one to fill, although it's not that obvious in his preferred 4-3-3 formation. He did start the Nations Cup with Nosa Igiebor in that attacking midfield role, before the emergence of Sunday Mba all but put the Betis man in the shade. Since then though, Mba has been unsettled, and Nnamdi Oduamadi has played a more prominent role, with mixed results. We’ve also seen glimpses of John Ogu, who’s passing and shooting have always impressed me, but he remains an option off the bench. If there is one part of Keshi's starting eleven that's still up for grabs, I'd say it is this one.

Keshi is well covered in goal. What else is there to say? I suppose everyone knew before Wednesday that Vincent Enyeama, after his exploits with Lille in France, was a top, top goalkeeper. Indeed, Enyeama already proved his worth at the last World Cup, keeping Leo Messi and Argentina at bay for a long time in Johannesburg. He only enhanced his reputation with another stellar showing against Mexico. But then on stepped Austin Ejide after the break, and after a superb second half Nigerians can rest easy knowing their goal will be well protected in Brazil.

Overall, I think it was a good performance for a team that just met up a day or two before the game and Keshi's first choice, for the most part, has a lot going for it. Kenneth Omeruo and Godfrey Oboabona continued their partnership in the centre of a defence that's looking more and more settled. Sure, there are problems with set-piece defending to iron out, but that's something that time on the training ground in the last few weeks of preparation should address.

In midfield, Ogenyi Onazi has cemented his place alongside Mikel, his defensive nous and energy dovetailing nicely with the more languid Chelsea man, and he can play a decent pass too. Emenike, upfront, combines strong hold-up play and pace with a real eye for goal. If wide men, Moses and Musa could just get on the same wavelength, releasing the ball at the right time, that counter-attacking threat could do some real damage come June.

Having said all that, the World Cup squad could still use some reinforcing, at the very least for competition, and more importantly, for contingencies like injury, loss of form or suspensions.

Keshi has never been afraid of throwing young players and home-based stars into the mix, and that could bode well for up-and-coming CHAN stars like Kunle Odunlami and Ejike Uzoenyi, who were both on the bench in Atlanta.

What that means for the chances of experienced old- hands, like Joseph Yobo, remains to be seen, although the much-touted Ike Uche seems to be out of the loop after his disciplinary issues with Keshi last year.

We'll know more in May.

Ten to Go:Four Horse Race for EPL Title

Ten games to go and the destination of the 2013/14 Premier League title is still very much in the air. Indeed, this is turning into one of the most open title races we’ve seen in a while, with a mere four points separating the top four teams. Is this going to be a four-horse race to the death? Or will the next few weeks, as the saying goes, “separate the men from the boys”? If nothing else, the fixture list should give inkling. Here’s what lies ahead for the contenders:

For all of Jose Mourinho’s protestations, Chelsea started the season as, at the very least, second favourites for the title – that they re-hired the Portuguese coach all but guaranteed that – and many of their fans would be pretty displeased if the title didn’t end up at Stamford Bridge come May. Of course it’s not just Mourinho’s winning track record that raised expectations; an already deep squad was strengthened by the arrivals of Andrea Schurrle, Willian and Samuel Eto’o in the summer; and Nemanja Matic and Mohammed Salah in January, and the Blues currently seat four points clear at the top of the table.
It’s a nice lead to have, yet it’s far from insurmountable and Chelsea will have to avoid any slips – like the recent home draw with West Ham - if they are to see this through. They remain a very hard team to beat – only three losses this season – and their run in doesn’t look too daunting, the toughest test coming in a potential decider against Liverpool at Anfield three weeks before the season ends, although home games against Tottenham and Arsenal could prove tricky.
FIXTURES: Spurs(h),Villa(a),Arsenal(h),Palace(a),Stoke(h),Swansea(a),Sunderland(h),Liverpool(a),Norwich(h),Cardiff(a)

Manchester City were clear favourites for the title when the season kicked off, again on account of a deep and talented squad bolstered by the multi-million summer arrivals of Alvaro Negredo, Jesus Navas, Stevan Jovetic and Fernandinho. Despite a shaky start – four losses in their first 15 games – they enter the home stretch well poised to make a run for a second title in three years. That is, if they can surmount the problems of fixture congestion and convert those two games in hand into six much needed points. City have been in great form though, losing just once since that early season flutter, and Sunday’s Carling Cup win would have boosted confidence – as will the return from injury of the prolific Kun Aguero. They’ll be hoping their early season away-day-woes are firmly behind them though, since their last 12 fixtures include trips to Old Trafford, the Emirates, Anfield and Goodison – typically, four of their toughest away games of the season.
FIXTURES:Hull(a),Fulham(h),ManU(a),Arsenal(a),Southampton(h),Liverpool(a),WBA(h),Palace(a),Sunderland(h),Everton(a),West Ham(h),Villa(a)

Arsenal have led the league for a long part of this season, the arrival of Mesut Ozil and the early season form of Aaron Ramsey especially inspiring a run of impressive performances. But the Gunners are going through a bit of a rough patch of late, losing two of their last four games, at Liverpool and Stoke, and slipping four points off the top. Their schedule doesn’t get any easier too: their next four games include trips to Tottenham, Chelsea and Everton, as well as a home match against a Manchester City that trounced them 6-3 at the Etihad earlier in the season. Ramsey’s return from injury – he’s been out since December – would be most welcome, but they will do well to still be in contention after that gruelling sequence.
FIXTURES: Spurs(a),Chelsea(a),ManCity(h),Everton(a),WestHam(h),Swansea(h),Hull(a),Newcastle(h),WBA(h),Norwich(a)

As for the dark horses, Liverpool have already exceeded expectations by remaining in the conversation this late in the season, yet they enter the run in great form, unbeaten this year and racking up 7 wins from their last nine matches. They’ve had their problems at the back, where comical mistakes have contributed to too many conceded goals, but they are the league’s highest goalscorers and currently seat in second spot on account of a superior goal difference. That could prove crucial come the end of the season. But even more critical could be their impressive form at Anfield, where they have dropped just 5 points in 14 matches, and comprehensively smashed both Arsenal and Everton in recent weeks. Their run in includes a trip to Old Trafford, but the key games – against Chelsea, Manchester City and Tottenham – are all at Anfield. If they can maintain their excellent home form – and keep strikers Luis Suarez and Daniel Sturridge injury free - they’ll be in this till the end.
FIXTURES: ManU(a),Cardiff(a),Sunderland(h),Spurs(h),WestHam(a),ManC(h),Norwich(a),Chelsea(h),Palace(a),Newcastle(h)

Of course, for all the focus on the big matches, it may well be one of the relegation-fighting “banana skins” that decide the destination of the title.

Still, the remaining fixtures suggest its Chelsea’s title to lose, even if City have games in hand and the quality to cope with a relatively more challenging fixture list. Liverpool’s firepower gives them an outside chance, but they’ll need others to falter, while the next four games could well put paid to whatever is left of Arsenal’s challenge.
Enjoy.