First, a confession; I have been a Holland fan for over 30 years now - even own one of those bright orange shirts.
Ever since Mario Kempes scored twice to condemn the Dutch to a 2nd consecutive World Cup final defeat in Beunos Aires all those years ago, I have been a staunch Dutch sympathiser, living through the Euro glory days of Rijkaard, Gullit and van Basten; and plumbing the depths of despair brought on by penalty shoot out woes at Euro 92, Euro 96, France 98 and Euro 2000. Of course, the one thing that's been missing in all those years is another trip to the championship game at the World Cup final and an opportunity to ease the pain of 1974 and 1978. Until now.
You'll probably understand my angst then, that now that the world cup is finally within reach, the one team that stands in the way of Dutch glory is the very same one that has, over the last three years , stolen my heart with its very special brand of the beautiful game - Spain.
So, can this latest incarnation of the Oranje succeed where their illustrious forebears faltered and trounce the best team on the planet to make history? And on which side of this divide will I now sit?
I'll tell you this much; the first question is easier answered. As world cup runs go, Holland have been pretty solid at this tourney having won all six of their games so far. They've scored 12 goals and let in 5 - but that number doesn't do their defensive record justice when you consider the manner of those conceded goals. Two were from the penalty spot - one for handball in the wall from a Cameroon free kick; the other an injury time consolation for Slovakia in the round of 16 - and another, late against Uruguay came after the game was effectively over. That might indicate lapses in concentration, but, save for a torrid 1st half against Brazil Holland's backline has hardly been troubled. Johnny Heitinga and Joris Mathijsen have looked competent enough in central defence, especially with van Bommel and the tigrish Nigel de Jong patrolling in front of them. Oddly, their biggest defensive tool may well be flankman Dirk Kuyt, whose tireless efforts down the left wing stifled the overlapping tendencies of Brazil's Maicon. Expect him to play in like mode against Spain's Sergio Ramos.
On the attacking end, much will depend on how much of the ball Wesley Sneijder sees, and if Arjen Robben and Robin van Persie get in the game. And the Dutch bench looks good too, with the likes of Ibrahim Affelay and the tricky Eljero Elia offering alternatives to the tried and tested. (By the way, if Holland really mean all the pre-match talk about attacking Spain, they have got to find a way to play Elia - he's skilful and quick). The Dutch will look to keep the ball and build patiently, as they have done to great effect on their run to the final, and again look to Sneijder to make things happen.
For all the positives though, Holland enter this final as clear underdogs. What else is there to say about European champions, Spain? High quality in every position and unbelievable team cohesion; team depth to die for - Fabregas, Torres, David Silva on the bench - and that mental steel that enables great teams to eke out results even on a bad day.
Spain for me, arrived South Africa as favourites so it's perhaps not surprising that they've made it this far. No one doubted they had the skill, but they've displayed immense character to overcome the extra pressure that early defeat to Switzerland must have imposed - practically forcing them into the knockout phase right from their second game. It's hard to bet against a team that has Xavi and Iniesta carving openings for David Villa - especially if they are on their game and bad luck doesn't have it in for them. But la Roja isn't just about offence; Pique and Puyol are as good as any defensive pairing anywhere; Busquets is underrated but very effective and Xabi Alonso never stops running.
I think this game will be decided in two areas: For Holland, van Bommel, de Jong and Sneijder will have to close the spaces in midfield, and Robben will need to do a lot of tracking back on the right wing if they are to keep Spain at bay. Spain must watch for the quick long diagonal pass, especially from Sneijder to Robben - but of course they prefer to defend by keeping the ball.
It should be great game to watch - if you love watching passes like I do - and after the last three rounds the smart money must be on another 1-0 win for Spain. I wouldn't wager money on the scores, but I think it's Spain's time to shine.
Oh, and as for my side of the divide; a big part of me will always support the Dutch but for this one, I think I'll be rooting for Spain. We'll see........
Saturday, July 10, 2010
Monday, July 5, 2010
Fortune Smiles
It’s a well-worn sporting cliché: you don’t win anything without some luck. Last weekend’s quarter final clashes sure underlined that point. No, I am not referring to Germany’s 4-0 annihilation of erstwhile favourites Argentina – no luck there, just a well planned and executed dismantling of Diego Maradona’s best laid plans.
For the other three ties though, fortune certainly smiled broadly on the victors. Okay, I will not argue that Holland was anything less than deserving of the win that knocked Brazil (another erstwhile favourite) out of the finals, but the tide only turned in their favour after goalkeeper Julio Cesar – with a lot of help from Felipe Melo – made a mess of what should have been a routine catch from Wesley Sneijder’s hopeful cross. There wasn’t even a single Dutch player anywhere near the ball! That the Brazilians then allowed Sneijder, the smallest man on the field, to head home from a corner kick wasn’t down to luck though – just poor defending.
That, of course, was nothing compared to the dramatic scenes that would herald Ghana’s exit at the hands of Uruguay in Friday’s late game. In the end, the Black Stars’ inability to stick the ball in the net - from open play over 120 minutes, and from the spot thereafter – proved their undoing. Asamoah Gyan’s unfortunate miss in the last minute of extra time broke hearts all over Africa and proved the slice of luck that Uruguay needed to sail through to the last four.
Much as since been made of the desperate handball offence that denied Dominic Adiyiah a winning goal and gifted Ghana the penalty from which Gyan missed. There have been suggestions that Luis Suarez - who got a red card and a one game suspension for his trouble – hasn’t been adequately punished for his unsportsmanlike action. I am not one of those calling for more sanctions though, and I am quite glad that Fifa has refused the urge to yield to such an emotional reaction to Ghana’s sad exit. Sure, Suarez’s action was deplorable, but what player wouldn’t have done exactly the same thing? Besides, aren’t a red card and a penalty sufficient punishment? That’s all you’d get for tripping up a player clean through on goal, and I don’t see how this is any different. The main issue really is that Gyan missed; had he scored we wouldn’t even be having this discussion.
But I digress; Spain certainly took their time seeing off the challenge of plucky Paraguay on Sunday, David Villa’s goal finally arriving 7 minutes from time, but despite dominating possession as usual they could have easily been two down by then. First, Nelson Valdez had a goal wrongly ruled out, ostensibly for offside, and then Iker Casillas guessed right to stop Cardozo’s penalty right on the hour to keep Spain in the game. Of course, two minutes after that, Xabi Alonso also had his twice taken penalty stopped to cap what must be the most exciting three minute spell of this World Cup. What I don’t get though, is how Alonso’s first successful effort could have been stricken off for encroachment, while Cardozo didn’t get a do-over even though there were just as many players in the box when his penalty was stopped at the other end.
It’s another of those infuriating refereeing inconsistencies that have plagued football for years. The one that really gets my goat came in the Argentina v Germany game and could ultimately hurt the Germans in their semi final clash against Spain. In the 5th minute, after Germany broke up an Argentina attack, winger Angel di Maria clearly stretched out his left hand, like a goalkeeper, to knock down Phillip Lahm’s attempted pass. Referee Ravshan Irmatov gave the foul but only verbally warned di Maria for what was clearly a bookable offence. Yet, midway through the second half, Thomas Muller attempted to chest a ball just on the edge of the German area, only for Jabulani to bounce up against his left arm – which was normally positioned in line with his torso. Irmatov again gave the foul, only this time he flashed a yellow card Muller’s way, ensuring the young star – scorer of four goals in these finals – will miss Tuesday’s semi final.
Speaking of that semi final clash, a rematch of the Euro 2008 final won by Spain, it’s another that would fit snugly under the too-close-to-call column. The Spaniards came into the World Cup as one of the firm favourites, but it’s the Germans that have been the more convincing side over the past three weeks and – even without Muller – appear to have the edge over a Spanish team that has only seldom played as well as we know they can. It should make for a nice contrast in styles – Spain’s patient, sometimes over-ponderous approach, to Germany’s rapid-fire, all-out attacking style. The German attack will come up against a sterner defence than they faced in the last two rounds, and midfield schemers Bastian Schweinsteiger and Mesut Ozil will have to be at their best to dominate Spain in the engine room. Top scorer David Villa will again be Spain’s key man upfront, having scored 5 of their six goals here. But Germany will know better than to just focus on him; the likes of Xavi, Iniesta and Alonso can do damage from midfield and this might just be the occasion for Fernando Torres to finally live up to his huge reputation. I think Spain will dominate possession again, without creating a ton of chances, and this game could well be decided by how well they keep the ball and deny Germany those quick counter attacks. We could be in for a long night.
Holland will be expected to see off Uruguay, but I doubt anyone will be writing off a team that boasts the shooting skills of Diego Forlan. The Atletico striker has three goals to his name so far, including two of the better goals seen at this World Cup, and there’ll be a lot riding on his abilities, especially with the aforementioned Suarez missing. The rage in the Dutch squad is all about Arjen Robben, yet it’s the diminutive Sneijder (4 goals) that has proved the team’s talisman. Mark van Bommel as also been solid in defensive midfield, but Uruguay has his match in the tireless Diego Perez and they also proved they have the depth to persevere in defence after losing both first choice centre backs against Ghana. This will probably be a closer game than most people expect, but if the Dutch can shake off the pressures that come with being favourites they have enough guile to book a place in the final.
I should probably stay away from predictions this time – too hard to factor for luck - but I do expect Holland to scale through. As for the other one; my heart says Spain, my head Germany.
For my sanity and well being, I’ll just try and keep the peace.
Enjoy.
For the other three ties though, fortune certainly smiled broadly on the victors. Okay, I will not argue that Holland was anything less than deserving of the win that knocked Brazil (another erstwhile favourite) out of the finals, but the tide only turned in their favour after goalkeeper Julio Cesar – with a lot of help from Felipe Melo – made a mess of what should have been a routine catch from Wesley Sneijder’s hopeful cross. There wasn’t even a single Dutch player anywhere near the ball! That the Brazilians then allowed Sneijder, the smallest man on the field, to head home from a corner kick wasn’t down to luck though – just poor defending.
That, of course, was nothing compared to the dramatic scenes that would herald Ghana’s exit at the hands of Uruguay in Friday’s late game. In the end, the Black Stars’ inability to stick the ball in the net - from open play over 120 minutes, and from the spot thereafter – proved their undoing. Asamoah Gyan’s unfortunate miss in the last minute of extra time broke hearts all over Africa and proved the slice of luck that Uruguay needed to sail through to the last four.
Much as since been made of the desperate handball offence that denied Dominic Adiyiah a winning goal and gifted Ghana the penalty from which Gyan missed. There have been suggestions that Luis Suarez - who got a red card and a one game suspension for his trouble – hasn’t been adequately punished for his unsportsmanlike action. I am not one of those calling for more sanctions though, and I am quite glad that Fifa has refused the urge to yield to such an emotional reaction to Ghana’s sad exit. Sure, Suarez’s action was deplorable, but what player wouldn’t have done exactly the same thing? Besides, aren’t a red card and a penalty sufficient punishment? That’s all you’d get for tripping up a player clean through on goal, and I don’t see how this is any different. The main issue really is that Gyan missed; had he scored we wouldn’t even be having this discussion.
But I digress; Spain certainly took their time seeing off the challenge of plucky Paraguay on Sunday, David Villa’s goal finally arriving 7 minutes from time, but despite dominating possession as usual they could have easily been two down by then. First, Nelson Valdez had a goal wrongly ruled out, ostensibly for offside, and then Iker Casillas guessed right to stop Cardozo’s penalty right on the hour to keep Spain in the game. Of course, two minutes after that, Xabi Alonso also had his twice taken penalty stopped to cap what must be the most exciting three minute spell of this World Cup. What I don’t get though, is how Alonso’s first successful effort could have been stricken off for encroachment, while Cardozo didn’t get a do-over even though there were just as many players in the box when his penalty was stopped at the other end.
It’s another of those infuriating refereeing inconsistencies that have plagued football for years. The one that really gets my goat came in the Argentina v Germany game and could ultimately hurt the Germans in their semi final clash against Spain. In the 5th minute, after Germany broke up an Argentina attack, winger Angel di Maria clearly stretched out his left hand, like a goalkeeper, to knock down Phillip Lahm’s attempted pass. Referee Ravshan Irmatov gave the foul but only verbally warned di Maria for what was clearly a bookable offence. Yet, midway through the second half, Thomas Muller attempted to chest a ball just on the edge of the German area, only for Jabulani to bounce up against his left arm – which was normally positioned in line with his torso. Irmatov again gave the foul, only this time he flashed a yellow card Muller’s way, ensuring the young star – scorer of four goals in these finals – will miss Tuesday’s semi final.
Speaking of that semi final clash, a rematch of the Euro 2008 final won by Spain, it’s another that would fit snugly under the too-close-to-call column. The Spaniards came into the World Cup as one of the firm favourites, but it’s the Germans that have been the more convincing side over the past three weeks and – even without Muller – appear to have the edge over a Spanish team that has only seldom played as well as we know they can. It should make for a nice contrast in styles – Spain’s patient, sometimes over-ponderous approach, to Germany’s rapid-fire, all-out attacking style. The German attack will come up against a sterner defence than they faced in the last two rounds, and midfield schemers Bastian Schweinsteiger and Mesut Ozil will have to be at their best to dominate Spain in the engine room. Top scorer David Villa will again be Spain’s key man upfront, having scored 5 of their six goals here. But Germany will know better than to just focus on him; the likes of Xavi, Iniesta and Alonso can do damage from midfield and this might just be the occasion for Fernando Torres to finally live up to his huge reputation. I think Spain will dominate possession again, without creating a ton of chances, and this game could well be decided by how well they keep the ball and deny Germany those quick counter attacks. We could be in for a long night.
Holland will be expected to see off Uruguay, but I doubt anyone will be writing off a team that boasts the shooting skills of Diego Forlan. The Atletico striker has three goals to his name so far, including two of the better goals seen at this World Cup, and there’ll be a lot riding on his abilities, especially with the aforementioned Suarez missing. The rage in the Dutch squad is all about Arjen Robben, yet it’s the diminutive Sneijder (4 goals) that has proved the team’s talisman. Mark van Bommel as also been solid in defensive midfield, but Uruguay has his match in the tireless Diego Perez and they also proved they have the depth to persevere in defence after losing both first choice centre backs against Ghana. This will probably be a closer game than most people expect, but if the Dutch can shake off the pressures that come with being favourites they have enough guile to book a place in the final.
I should probably stay away from predictions this time – too hard to factor for luck - but I do expect Holland to scale through. As for the other one; my heart says Spain, my head Germany.
For my sanity and well being, I’ll just try and keep the peace.
Enjoy.
Thursday, July 1, 2010
World Cup Quarter Finals: History Beckons
With eight teams left at South Africa 2010, I guess it’s fair to say that the men have been clearly separated from the boys. That countries like Ghana, Uruguay and Paraguay have come this far, while their more storied counterparts – France, England and Italy – are already on their summer holidays is proof positive that the beautiful game is no respecter of reputations. Needless to say, the big guns left in the running – Germany, Argentina, Spain, Holland and Brazil – will do well to heed that point when the quarter finals kick off today.
Holland and Brazil kick things off in Port Elizabeth and it will be a pity to see one of them depart at this stage. Both remain unbeaten after four matches and are both quite capable of playing patient, possession football. Brazil proved they could step it up a notch against Chile in the last round, scoring in typical fashion from a set-piece and two quick-fire counter-attacks, and the Dutch will have to watch out for Robinho, Kaka and Luis Fabiano – at least one of them has been involved in some way in 6 of the 8 goals Brazil have scored so far in South Africa. Holland will be able to call on the dangerous Arjen Robben once again, and the Dutch will make a game of it if Bert Van Marwijk dares to call on the impressive Eljero Elia. Defences could well make the difference in this tie, and despite the best efforts of Nigel de Jong and Mark van Bommel in front of Holland’s back four, it’s hard to bet against Lucio and co. I think Brazil will take a close game 2-0 or 2-1.
Two of the finals’ surprise performers clash in Friday’s other game in Johannesburg’s impressive Soccercity. Ghana v Uruguay on paper may not get the juices running but this could well be the most exciting of the last 8 ties, with the Black Stars trying to become the first African team to reach the last four, and Uruguay, winners in 1930 and 1950, looking to relive their illustrious past and reach the semis for the first time in 40 years.
History beckons, and two evenly matched sides could serve up a delight in the calabash. Uruguay have been one of the more positive sides at the finals, playing Diego Forlan behind Luis Suarez and Edison Cavani upfront, and they also have real steel down the spine of their side, with Diego Perez in midfield shielding a back four led by the hard-as-nails captain Diego Lugano. Ghana will again look to prove that a good team should surpass the sum of its individual parts, especially with the skilful Andre Ayew missing through suspension. The Ghanaians play a very organised formation that makes them tough to score against, and their neat passing game ensures they can keep possession for long periods and create openings at the other end. Their one failing has been an astonishing profligacy in front of goal – even if lone striker Asamoah Gyan has three goals (2 penalties) to his name. If they can remedy that, the Black Stars should be making African history come Friday night. I’ll stick my neck out there and pick Ghana to win 1-0.
Saturday’s first game, featuring Argentina and Germany in Cape Town, should be a delight to watch and will be much tougher to call. Both teams have been consistently impressive and have played arguably the best football seen at these finals so far. Germany’s young team are clearly primed to attack, with Bastien Schweinsteiger impressively dictating the pace and the young Mesut Ozil building a reputation as one of the best creative midfielders in the game. Argentina, of course, already boast the cream of the crop in Leo Messi, Carlos Tevez and Gonzalo Higuain and have plenty in reserve to trouble a young German backline. Not many would be betting against an Argentina win in this game, yet I think it would be a real close affair and I have my concerns about the Argentine defence and their ability to cope with the pacy young Germans. Four years ago, this tie went to a penalty shoot out won by the Germans. We may well need that again this time, and this is one of those games that could truly go either way. But if I have to pick a winner, I’ll be backing the Germans to shade this one again.
Spain will definitely be expected to take their place in the last four after their clash with Paraguay at Ellis Park on Saturday evening. I have long admired their excellent ball passing and teamwork and after watching them dismantle a decent Portugal side on Tuesday it’s no surprise I am backing them to win this one. If Xavi and Iniesta play as they can, and David Villa remains as clinical as ever – or if Torres finally recovers some sharpness – Paraguay will have little chance of upsetting the European champions. Then again, this is football and the Swiss did beat Spain in the first round just 3 weeks ago. Besides, Paraguay boast some exciting attacking talent too, in Nelson Valdez, Roque Santa Cruz, Lucas Barrios and Oscar Cardozo. If one of those can grab a goal – or if they can nick one from a set piece – they’ll be counting on ‘keeper Justo Villar to keep La Roja out. I don’t think so though. I’m going for a 2-0 Spain win.
If I’m right, it’ll be Brazil v Ghana and Spain v Germany in the semis. And if I’m wrong….well, then I’m wrong. It’s football.
Enjoy.
Holland and Brazil kick things off in Port Elizabeth and it will be a pity to see one of them depart at this stage. Both remain unbeaten after four matches and are both quite capable of playing patient, possession football. Brazil proved they could step it up a notch against Chile in the last round, scoring in typical fashion from a set-piece and two quick-fire counter-attacks, and the Dutch will have to watch out for Robinho, Kaka and Luis Fabiano – at least one of them has been involved in some way in 6 of the 8 goals Brazil have scored so far in South Africa. Holland will be able to call on the dangerous Arjen Robben once again, and the Dutch will make a game of it if Bert Van Marwijk dares to call on the impressive Eljero Elia. Defences could well make the difference in this tie, and despite the best efforts of Nigel de Jong and Mark van Bommel in front of Holland’s back four, it’s hard to bet against Lucio and co. I think Brazil will take a close game 2-0 or 2-1.
Two of the finals’ surprise performers clash in Friday’s other game in Johannesburg’s impressive Soccercity. Ghana v Uruguay on paper may not get the juices running but this could well be the most exciting of the last 8 ties, with the Black Stars trying to become the first African team to reach the last four, and Uruguay, winners in 1930 and 1950, looking to relive their illustrious past and reach the semis for the first time in 40 years.
History beckons, and two evenly matched sides could serve up a delight in the calabash. Uruguay have been one of the more positive sides at the finals, playing Diego Forlan behind Luis Suarez and Edison Cavani upfront, and they also have real steel down the spine of their side, with Diego Perez in midfield shielding a back four led by the hard-as-nails captain Diego Lugano. Ghana will again look to prove that a good team should surpass the sum of its individual parts, especially with the skilful Andre Ayew missing through suspension. The Ghanaians play a very organised formation that makes them tough to score against, and their neat passing game ensures they can keep possession for long periods and create openings at the other end. Their one failing has been an astonishing profligacy in front of goal – even if lone striker Asamoah Gyan has three goals (2 penalties) to his name. If they can remedy that, the Black Stars should be making African history come Friday night. I’ll stick my neck out there and pick Ghana to win 1-0.
Saturday’s first game, featuring Argentina and Germany in Cape Town, should be a delight to watch and will be much tougher to call. Both teams have been consistently impressive and have played arguably the best football seen at these finals so far. Germany’s young team are clearly primed to attack, with Bastien Schweinsteiger impressively dictating the pace and the young Mesut Ozil building a reputation as one of the best creative midfielders in the game. Argentina, of course, already boast the cream of the crop in Leo Messi, Carlos Tevez and Gonzalo Higuain and have plenty in reserve to trouble a young German backline. Not many would be betting against an Argentina win in this game, yet I think it would be a real close affair and I have my concerns about the Argentine defence and their ability to cope with the pacy young Germans. Four years ago, this tie went to a penalty shoot out won by the Germans. We may well need that again this time, and this is one of those games that could truly go either way. But if I have to pick a winner, I’ll be backing the Germans to shade this one again.
Spain will definitely be expected to take their place in the last four after their clash with Paraguay at Ellis Park on Saturday evening. I have long admired their excellent ball passing and teamwork and after watching them dismantle a decent Portugal side on Tuesday it’s no surprise I am backing them to win this one. If Xavi and Iniesta play as they can, and David Villa remains as clinical as ever – or if Torres finally recovers some sharpness – Paraguay will have little chance of upsetting the European champions. Then again, this is football and the Swiss did beat Spain in the first round just 3 weeks ago. Besides, Paraguay boast some exciting attacking talent too, in Nelson Valdez, Roque Santa Cruz, Lucas Barrios and Oscar Cardozo. If one of those can grab a goal – or if they can nick one from a set piece – they’ll be counting on ‘keeper Justo Villar to keep La Roja out. I don’t think so though. I’m going for a 2-0 Spain win.
If I’m right, it’ll be Brazil v Ghana and Spain v Germany in the semis. And if I’m wrong….well, then I’m wrong. It’s football.
Enjoy.
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