Friday, June 20, 2014

Nigeria v Bosnia: Underdog Status May Suit Eagles Better

There has been a lot of talk about calculators and permutations since the final whistle blew on Nigeria's goalless draw with Iran on Monday. Yet, the situation facing the Super Eagles as they take on Bosnia-Herzegovina in Cuiaba on Saturday night is pretty straightforward: a win will guarantee progress to the next round, a defeat or draw means they can start packing up for the long journey home.


Okay, I've made some assumptions there which, given the way this World Cup is going, could be a foolhardy thing to do. But if wagering against Iran picking up three points from two matches against Argentina and Bosnia - the only scenario that could derail the Eagles if they win - is foolhardy, then it's a risk I'm happy to take.

Of course, winning, as we found out on Monday, is easier said than done, and if anything, the Bosnians should be even tougher to beat. They'll certainly present a different kind of challenge to the defensive puzzle the Eagles faced on Monday.

For one thing, the Bosnians are unlikely to take a defensive approach into this game. They need the points, and will believe they have the players to beat a Nigerian team that hardly covered itself in glory last time out.

That means Coach Safet Susic is likely to revert to his preferred two-pronged forward line of Edin Dzeko, who started as a lone striker against Argentina, and Vedad Ibisevic, who came off the bench to grab a late consolation goal.


There's not much else to say about Dzeko, whose exploits in England have put him firmly in the spotlight over the past three years. His 29-year old partner, on the other hand, keeps a lower profile, but could be of even greater concern to the Eagles defense. A deadly goal machine, Ibisevic once hit 18 goals in half a Bundesliga season (17 matches), helping newly promoted Hoffenheim to the top of the table in 2008/09, before a ruptured cruciate ligament wrecked his season and set his career back. He has since bounced back and now plays for VfB Stuttgart, where he's scored 33 goals in the last two seasons. More importantly, Ibisevic has scored 21 times in 56 appearances for his country, including the goal that sealed a place in Brazil and Bosnia's first- ever goal at the finals. So a man with a penchant, not just for scoring, but for scoring big goals could cause problems for Nigeria.

Besides their accomplished strike duo Bosnia also have two top quality providers in midfield. Zvjezdan Misimovic may be 32 now and earning his keep in China, but it's not that long ago that he inspired Wolfsburg to the Bundesliga title - teeing up many goals for Dzeko. Beside him will be the younger, but no less accomplished Miralem Pjanic, only 24 but a Champions League veteran, after four years at Lyon, and now with Roma in Serie A.

That's enough to give the Bosnians the confidence to take the game to Nigeria, and frankly, if I were Bosnian, I'd fancy my team's chances.

Yet, it's that very mindset that could play perfectly into Nigeria's hands, and bring out the best in the Super Eagles. As we saw on Monday, Keshi's team, playing the way they did, will struggle to break down a deep-sitting defence. On the other hand, a team blessed with pace and power to burn and a fondness for the long pass could benefit from playing an opponent committed to attacking football. Put in other terms, the Eagles might thrive better as underdogs than they did as favourites.

It wouldn't surprise me to see Bosnia dominate possession while the Super Eagles soak up pressure and look to strike back through quick transitions, even if Susic starts with one striker as he has hinted he will. In fact, we may have seen this before. When the Eagles played Mexico in that goalless friendly in March, that's exactly what they seemed to have in mind. I remember the full backs pinching in to block the channels, and those pacy wingers - Moses and Musa - play deeper than usual, as the Mexicans attacked in waves. And then as soon as possession was won back, the Eagles stormed furiously forward in search of goals.

It worked up to a point on that day, even if the Eagles failed to score - partly thanks to some great saves by the now world famous Guillermo Ochoa - and it took some heroic saves by Enyeama and Ejide to preserve the clean sheet. But it was a vigorous, energetic display by Keshi's team and, if they can play like that again, it could work a treat on Saturday.

A couple of things would have to happen for it to work, though. First, the team has to be optimally organized defensively to keep the Bosnian attack out. There can be no room for silly mistakes or basic errors. No failing to track back or losing your man - like we saw against the US in May. Soaking up pressure can be a risky business, especially against skilled opposition and if they score first, they might retreat as well and that means the game plan is out of the window.

Second, there can be no wasteful coughing up of possession, and squandering of goal-scoring opportunities when they arrive. That will mean making better decisions - at least a few times - especially in the final third, and avoiding the kind of selfish, blind runs we have to come to expect from Moses, when he heads up those dark alleys and refuses to pass the ball.


Can these happen? For the first, losing Oboabona and Echiejile doesn't help, but the energy of Onazi will be crucial and having Enyeama as last line can only be comforting. As for the second, well, one can only hope.


As for the personnel, I doubt we'll see a vastly different team from last Monday's starters. Oboabona's absence means Yobo will continue his century quest, and the only key decision has to be if Azeez retains his place in midfield - I don't think he showed enough against Iran - or Odemwingie gets to build on his promising cameo. From an attacking point of view, the latter would be my preference but could cost the team in defensive balance.

It's a daunting task ahead of the Eagles, and they'll have to shake off the lethargy of the last game and find some of the energy that served them so well in that Mexico game. Of course, they could do all that and more, and still fall short.

Without it though, they won't even stand a chance.




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