Monday, May 4, 2009

Don't Bet On Chelsea

I know. It’s been a while. But is there a better time to return to action than now? With matters coming to a head in the Champions League and the Premiership race dragging on I have little choice but to put pen to paper - or fingers to keyboard, I suppose – and offer up my tuppence worth. Of course, there’s also the little matter of the battle for supremacy in La Liga - which by the way appears to have been settled at the Bernabeu last Saturday. And even Ligue One in France has it’s share of drama, with both Bordeaux and Marseilles looking to upstage perennial champions Lyons, who are looking for a 8th consecutive title.

After last week’s semi-final first leg results, the odds must be on Man Utd and Chelsea making it a repeat of last year’s Champions League Final, although I am positive that both Arsenal and Barcelona will yet have a say in how things turn out. Indeed, anyone who witnessed Barcelona’s weekend demolition of Real Madrid in La Liga would hesitate to put any money on Chelsea reaching a second consecutive final. If you missed it, you sure missed a treat, as Xavi, Iniesta and Messi painted little passing patterns around the Meringues, and Thierry Henry – looking like his old Arsenal version – plundering two goals on their way to an emphatic 6-2 rout - and on enemy turf, to boot.

Chelsea’s stiff defensive showing at the Nou Camp did just about enough to stifle Pep Guardiola’s attacking machine in the first leg, but I’ll be shocked if the Blues resort to the same negative mindset in front of their home fans and this one should be a more open affair. As Barcelona showed at the weekend, they’ll play the same way, home or away, and if Chelsea give them the room they could be on the end of a hiding. Chelsea will be looking to take advantage of Barcelona’s less than stellar defense, especially with Carles Puyol suspended and Rafa Marquez injured, and they could do some damage from set-pieces where their superior physique – think Ballack, Drogba, Terry, Ivanovic, Alex – puts them at an advantage. It’s a tough call, and Chelsea will be no pushovers, but I think Barcelona will shade this one.

Arsenal managed to escape Old Trafford with a slim one goal deficit last week, but they’ll need to be at their very best to see off an in-form Man Utd at the Emirates. Sadly, Arsenal at their best includes Andrei Arshavin these days and the little Russian is ineligible for Champions League play. Man U seem to have found their best form again, since Sir Alex switched Wayne Rooney to that wide left role and let Carlos Tevez run riot down the middle, and if they have a good day it’s hard to see Arsenal winning this one. Most teams would be adequately distracted by a league championship race to take their eyes of the ball, but Man U boast a squad of both depth and quality and the likes of Ronaldo, Michael Carrick and Rio Ferdinand will return refreshed after sitting out the weekend win at Middlesbrough. Regardless of what happened last week, Arsenal have been playing with confidence and the craft of Cesc Fabregas, Theo Walcott and Emmanuel Adebayor should be enough to earn them a goal or two. But keeping United off the scoresheet will prove a mountain too high to climb and the Red Devils should be on course for Rome come Tuesday night.

Whatever happens, enjoy the football. I‘ll be back with more on the Premiership, La Liga and France later in the week.

2 comments:

Toxicarrow said...

The same thing said about Barcelona's game last weekend could also be said about Chelsea's wonderful game against Fulham on Saturday.

My money is on Chelsea to win if Cech does not mess up in goal. These days, with the sloppy goal-keeping of Cech, I am beginning to see this present Chelsea squad under the tutelage of Gus Hiddink in the same context as the 'famous' Samba boyz of 1982 WC.

As you know, it was a team that had everything going well for it until the goalie messed up everything.

If Cech gets his act together in goal, Chelsea might be the "new champion' at the end of the day. Gus has transformed the team to a winning team. He has also debunked the long-held myth of Scolari and others about 'Anelka-Drogba' partnership. Today, the partnership of Anelka and Drogba is proving to be an effective one -- in other words, nightmare for the defenders and coaches.

SOCCERBUFF said...

One difference: Chelsea played Fulham - 8th in the Prem - at the Bridge, while Barca played Real Madrid in a crucial title face-off at the Bernabeu. And Real were unbeaten in 18 matches..
If Cech has a great game, Chelsea will have a good chance, but I doubt it'll be his fault if they go out