I’m beginning to sound like a Manchester United supporter but I think the Red Devils are favourites to win a second consecutive Champions League title when they face Barcelona in Rome tonight.
Man U have the edge for two reasons. First, while everyone raves about the potency of their attack, Man U, on their day, have the defensive nous to keep Barcelona’s equally frightening attack at bay. They’ll miss the work rate of the suspended Darren Fletcher in midfield, but Anderson will be a more than adequate replacement alongside Michael Carrick in front of the back four. If Rio Ferdinand returns, as expected to partner Nemanja Vidic in central defence – and they have a good game – Braca’s attack will have a hard time breaking them down.
Second, and perhaps more importantly, Braca’s defence is racked with suspensions and injury trouble. Full backs Dani Alvez and Eric Abidal are out suspended; centre backs Rafa Marquez and Gaby Milito are out injured, and although Carles Puyol should return to partner Gerard Pique - or fill one of the full back slots – it’s going to be a make-shift Barca defence against the guile and power of Wayne Rooney and Ronaldo in one of the most potent attacking pairs in Europe. If they don’t improve on their showing at Stamford Bridge in the semis it could be a long night.
So, it’s advantage Man U – at least on paper.
But having said all that, there are two things that could swing this for Barcelona.
First, of course, is the crazy attacking talent on this team and their ability to keep the ball and carve openings out of nothing. There’s no question that they’ll dominate possession, and those pint-sized maestros, Xavi and Andres Iniesta, are as creative as they come, and if anyone can breach United’s vaunted defence, they can. Then ahead of them are three of the most skilled poachers in world football – Thierry Henry, Lionel Messi and Samuel Eto’o - who have already scored 97 goals between them this season. They weren’t quite as prolific against Chelsea in the semis, but I doubt Man U will play as defensively as the Blues did, and that might well give Barca room to play.
The second factor in favour of a Barca win is tradition. The Champions League – and the European Cup before it - is strewn with a long history of final upsets – underdogs overcoming their favoured rivals time and again to lift “the cup with the big ears”.
Where to begin? I could go as far back as 1962, when a favoured Barcelona fell short against Benfica, but I’ll try and keep it a little more contemporary – lest I begin to date myself. In 1983, Juventus, packed with Italian World Cup winners from the previous year – Rossi, Tardelli, Gentile etc. – and superstars Platini and Boniek, were taken out by German upstarts Hamburg; three years later, Barcelona lost to Steau Bucharest on penalties, in Spain, and the following year, Rabah Madjer’s cheeky back-heel helped Porto beat Bayern Munich.
There’s more: Red Star Belgrade topped star-studded Marseilles in 1991, and then Marseilles themselves beat much-favoured AC Milan in ’93. The following year, Barcelona’s “Dream Team” – Romario, Stoichkov and co – was expected to run over a Milan side deprived of regulars Baresi, Costacurta and Marco van Basten yet it was the Italians that won 4-1.
Two more: Juventus were big favourites against Dortmund in 1997, yet a pimply-faced teenager called Lars Ricken scored the decider in a 3-1 Dortmund win. And then there’s Istanbul in 2005, when Liverpool came from three down to beat Milan.
Man U may be favourites, but I’m not sure that tag means much where Champions League finals are concerned.
I’m looking forward to a Barcelona win – against all the odds.
Enjoy.
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