Euro 2008 Semi Finals: Predict At Your Own Risk!!

Just when you think you finally understand football, Euro 2008 comes along and blows everything out of the water. What can I say? That’s why we love this crazy game. Of my four picks for the semi finals only one remains in contention as the first of those games kick off this evening.

I am sure I’m not alone too. Did anyone out there really think Russia or Turkey would still be standing this late in the competition? Or that a Dutch team that had been irresistible in group play would be so summarily beaten by the unknown Russians? Well, one thing is for sure: these Russians are no longer unknown. The most popular name at Euro 2008 is now that of Andrei Arshavin, and the likes of left back Yuri Zhirkov and striker Roman Pavlyuchenko aren’t too far behind.

In truth, we should have known better. With Guus Hiddink at the helm, anything is possible and, just because of him, I kind of had an eye on the Russians from the off. Yet, after that 4-1 trouncing by Spain, I had to downgrade my expectations. Of course, like everyone else, I hadn’t heard of the phenomenon called Arshavin, who missed the first two games due to suspension. That is certainly an indictment of the polarization of the game today, since Arshavin had just inspired Russian club Zenit St. Petersburg to UEFA Cup glory. With all the attention on the high-profile Champions League we’d all kind off missed all that. But that’s a topic for another day. Now after dominating the last two games, scoring twice and setting up another two goals, the tiny No. 10 certainly has our attention. He will need to be at his best if Russia are to see off the Spaniards tomorrow. I don’t think that’ll happen though.

Spain remain my one consolation in the Euro 2008 prediction stakes. Not only are they the only one of my last four picks to get that far, I also picked them to win the whole thing and I still believe they’ll win this one. Spain’s biggest advantage is the depth of the squad. Not many teams at these finals can change it’s entire midfield without a drop in quality, yet Luis Aragones can take off Xavi, Iniesta and Silva, and put in Fabregas, Xabi Alonso and Cazorla. Up front, Torres was the pre-finals favorite, yet it’s David Villa that’s been taking the plaudits with his tireless running, trickery and finishing prowess. I think the Spain’s measured, patient approach doesn’t exactly play to Torres’ more instinctive, speedy style. He would benefit more from playing in front of Liverpool mate Xabi Alonso and Fabregas – who’s also used to the faster transition of the Premier League – but Aragones is unlikely to sacrifice ball winner Marcos Senna against the skillful Russians. Spain struggled to break down the Italians in the last round but I think they’ll fare better against a Russian backline that will be without centreback Denis Kolodin.

Can any one really be surprised that Germany is in the semi finals? Well, maybe considering that they got the better of a Portugal team that looked to have finally overcome its past failings on the goal-scoring end. Yet, the German “machine” is well known for eking out results without actually impressing the purists. They were solid against Portugal and took advantage of sloppy defending at free-kicks and I see them carrying on in the same manner to the final. In my last post, I said Michael Ballack would have to play better – he has – and someone other than Lucas Podolski would have to contribute some goals – they have. Joachim Loew has proved he can adapt tactics to match the opposition and it would be interesting to see how he sets up against the Turks tonight. If the Germans keep improving – especially Ballack and Bastien Schweinsteiger – and keep their concentration to the very end, Germany should be celebrating a place in the final.

And what can one say about Turkey? If this hasn’t been a miraculous sojourn so far, it sure would be if they pulled off one more win against Germany. Of course, the journey so far as been simply incredible. After losing to Portugal in the opening game, they’ve not only come from behind to win each of their last three games, they’ve also scored last minute goals in all those games, the most dramatic being Semih Senturk’s 120th minute equalizer against Croatia in the quarter finals – just a minute after Ivan Klasnic seemed to have put Croatia through. Another escape against Germany would simply put this into the folkloric realm, especially with Fatih Terim’s squad pared down to 15 players – including 2 goalkeepers – as a result of injuries and suspensions. They’ll be fighting to the very end but I don’t see Turkey getting past a savvy German side tonight.

Anyway, that’s just a few hours away now so we’ll wait and see. I can’t say I’ve got a good predicting record in this competition so far, but like the Turks I think I’ll come good right at the end.

So, here’s to a Spain v Germany final come Sunday. Enjoy the semis.