I’ll try not to be glib but I fully expect Spain to clinch Euro 2008 this afternoon with a convincing victory over Germany. As you must know by now, the Spaniards have been my pick to win it right from the start, so – I’ll admit – it would feel great to be right, for once!
But that’s not the main reason I’m sticking my neck out for a Spanish conquest today.
That Spain would play superb possession football was no surprise to anyone coming into these finals. With a midfield featuring the likes of Xavi, Iniesta, Fabregas and David Silva, Spain were always going to dominate the ball. But they’ve also proved very effective in converting possession into goals – they’ve got a tournament high 11 so far – and they’ve defended pretty well too, letting in just 3 goals in 5 matches.
Beyond those tangibles though, the sheer quality of Spain’s play in these finals has been simply breathtaking at times. They again proved why they would be worthy champions in the 3-0 demolition of Russia last Thursday, so much so that the dreaded Andrei Arshavin – nemesis of both Sweden and Holland - was completely played out of the game.
I have alluded to Spain’s strength in depth in the past and they again proved the point in the Russia game. Not only did top scorer David Villa limp off injured in the first half, Aragones then decided to take off Fernando Torres and Xavi in the second half. Now, that would be akin to Russia taking off Arshavin, striker Roman Pavlyuchenko and Yuri Zhirkov, basically their three best players. Yet, if anything, the Spaniards looked even stronger, scoring two more goals after Fabregas, Xabi Alonso and Guiza took the field.
Spain will be without Villa – the tournament leading scorer - in the final and that would be a great loss for any other team. For Spain though, in a perverse kind of way, Villa’s absence could well make them even stronger. Aragones will more than likely stick to the 4-2-3-1 formation that saw out the semi-final, with Xavi dropping back alongside Marcos Senna and Fabregas starting between Iniesta and David Silva, just behind Torres. We’ve all seen what havoc Fabregas can wreak and I still think his vision and early passing suits Torres much better.
Furthermore, Aragones is far from unhappy with this “Plan B” given that his team had played in this formation for the better part of the last 12 months and there were a few raised eyebrows when he opted to start with two strikers in a 4-4-2 formation when Euro 2008 kicked off three weeks ago. So, in a sense, this is more a return to Plan A for Spain.
Now, contrast Spain’s comfort with seemingly second string choices to the hue and cry on the German side over the possibility of Michael Ballack missing the final and you’ll perhaps understand my conviction that this Euro title is heading to Madrid. A full strength Germany will have to be at their very best to overcome this Spain side – something we haven’t seen very often at these finals – and without Ballack they’ll certainly be missing their key inspiration.
Of course, this being the crazy game of football - and this being Euro 2008 - anything is possible and only the foolhardy would write Germany off, especially given their illustrious history. And Germany do have their strengths too – Ballack or no Ballack.
Their quick, direct play – especially through Lukas Podolski and Bastien Schweinsteiger – proved most effective against Portugal and Turkey and would contrast starkly with Spain’s patient approach. They also pose a potent threat from set-pieces and Spain will have to be wary of the aerial prowess of the likes of Ballack and Miro Klose who have plundered 3 headed goals in the last two matches.
Other than Ballack, Germany’s main threat will again come from Podolski on the left wing, but he’ll come up against Sergio Ramos, who was in excellent form against Russia’s Zhirkov in the semis. Of course, Ramos struggled earlier in the finals too and Germany will be looking to catch him stranded upfield on one of his usual overlapping raids.
Torsten Frings will be crucial in front of the back four, as he proved after coming on as a second half sub against Turkey. Germany’s defence certainly needs all the shielding it can get after conceding 4 goals in the last two matches.
This should be an exciting finish to what’s proved a great three weeks of thrilling football. Spanish finesse against German resilience should prove quite the contest, but I see the Spaniards taking this one – and it won’t be that close either.
The last three weeks have been a great advert for attacking football with loads of surprises and drama all the way.
Now, if we can just finish with some exciting football – and no surprises – Spain should be all set for a long awaited celebration. Viva Espana!!
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