If I told you Liverpool have won three of every 5 games they've played in the Premier League this season, it would be understandable if you simply concluded that their 18 wins so far constitutes about 60% of the 28 games played so far - actually that is 64.28 % - hence my 3-in-5 average summation.
But you'd be wrong. Not in your math, of course. That much is correct, but when I speak of winning 3 in 5, I speak not of averages, but quite literally.
It’s rather remarkable, but if you divide Liverpool's League campaign into blocks of five games, starting in week one all the way through week 25, you’ll find exactly three wins in each block.
Liverpool started the season with those three 1-0 wins, then drew the next game 2-2 at Swansea before losing to Southampton at home in game 5.
| BLOCK 1 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Stoke | H | 1-0 | W |
| Aston Villa | A | 1-0 | W |
| Man Utd | H | 1-0 | W |
| Swansea | A | 2-2 | D |
| Southampton | H | 0-1 | L |
The second block of five brought wins at Sunderland, and at home to Crystal Palace and West Brom, but also a 2-2 draw at Newcastle, and a loss to Arsenal at the Emirates.
| BLOCK 2 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Sunderland | A | 3-1 | W |
| Crystal Palace | H | 3-1 | W |
| Newcastle | A | 2-2 | D |
| West Brom | H | 4-1 | W |
| Arsenal | A | 0-2 | L |
Even after a shock loss at Hull City followed a draw at Goodison park - to leave the Reds with just one win, against Fulham. - at the start the next 5 match sequence, Liverpool beat both Norwich and West Ham to maintain their run.
| BLOCK 3 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Fulham | H | 4-0 | W |
| Everton | A | 3-3 | D |
| Hull | A | 1-3 | L |
| Norwich | H | 5-1 | W |
| West Ham | H | 4-1 | W |
And although back to back defeats at Man City and Chelsea put a dent in Liverpool's year end celebrations, they beat Tottenham, Cardiff and Hull to keep the same win quota.
| BLOCK 4 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Tottenham | A | 5-0 | W |
| Cardiff | H | 3-1 | D |
| Man City | A | 1-2 | L |
| Chelsea | A | 1-2 | W |
| Hull | H | 2-0 | W |
The New Year has proved even more rewarding. The next 5 matches were negotiated without a defeat, even if draws at home with Aston Villa and away at West Brom were disappointing, leaving Liverpool with a now customary three wins out of five.
| BLOCK 5 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Stoke | A | 5-3 | W |
| Aston Villa | H | 2-2 | D |
| Everton | H | 4-0 | W |
| West Brom | A | 1-1 | D |
| Arsenal | H | 5-1 | W |
It's not just the consistent 3-in-5 win quota though; a look at the points won in each of those blocks tells its own remarkable story.
Liverpool had exactly 10 points after the first 5 games and exactly 20 points after 10 games. Indeed, after 15 games they had ....yes, you guessed it…..30 points. Their 5-match points total did dip after those back to back December losses - to 9 points - which is why Liverpool's points total after 20 games was 39 points.
But they made up for that in the next block, winning 11 points - just enough to maintain their 2 points per game average and take them to exactly 50 points after 25 games.
| LIVERPOOL | ||
|---|---|---|
| BLOCK | SEQUENCE | POINTS |
| 1 | WWWDL | 10 |
| 2 | WWDWL | 10 |
| 3 | WDLWW | 10 |
| 4 | WWLLW | 9 |
| 5 | WDWDW | 11 |
| 6 | WWW | 9 |
Now, consistent as that is, a 2 point per game average won’t be enough to win Liverpool the title this season, although it might just do for a top four finish and Champions League qualification. As you would expect, the other three teams in the hunt - Chelsea, Arsenal and Man City - have been just as consistent, even better. Indeed, it would seem winning 3 of every 5 games is a minimum requirement for a consistent top four - or title - challenge. All these teams have done that and more. It’s just that it’s only Liverpool that has been steadily at the same level all season - winning 3, and no more, of every 5 games.
That can be a good thing - as Liverpool's place on the table suggests. Although a change in the right direction would be even better.
Take Chelsea, for instance. They also consistently posted 10 point returns for each of the first three 5- game blocks of the season, but have since stepped it up, gaining 13 points in each of the subsequent two blocks, and reaching 56 points after 25 games.
| CHELSEA | ||
|---|---|---|
| BLOCK | SEQUENCE | POINTS |
| 1 | WWDLW | 10 |
| 2 | DWWWL | 10 |
| 3 | DWWWL | 10 |
| 4 | WDWWW | 13 |
| 5 | WWDWW | 13 |
| 6 | DWWW | 10 |
Likewise Man City, who have finished the last two 5 game blocks with 15 and 13 points respectively. If they can keep that up with their games in hand, they'll be well placed to keep pace with Chelsea - whose 10 points from their last four games means they are well on track to complete another productive 5-game block.
| MAN C | ||
|---|---|---|
| BLOCK | SEQUENCE | POINTS |
| 1 | WLWDW | 10 |
| 2 | LWWLW | 9 |
| 3 | LWWWD | 10 |
| 4 | WWWW | 15 |
| 5 | WWWWL | 12 |
| 6 | D | 1 |
Arsenal, on the other hand, is in danger of falling off the pace. They've played three of their current 5-game block, winning only four points in the process. That the last two games of that sequence are away trips to Tottenham and Chelsea doesn't bode well.
| ARSENAL | ||
|---|---|---|
| BLOCK | SEQUENCE | POINTS |
| 1 | LWWWW | 12 |
| 2 | WDWWW | 13 |
| 3 | LWWWD | 10 |
| 4 | LDWWW | 10 |
| 5 | WWDWL | 10 |
| 6 | DWL | 4 |
Liverpool fans will of course hope that the current five game block yields more than three wins - especially since the Reds already have three straight wins ahead of this weekend's game at Old Trafford, and the trip to Cardiff City the following week.
| BLOCK 6 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Fulham | A | 3-2 | W |
| Swansea | H | 4-3 | D |
| Southampton | H | 3-0 | W |
| Man Utd | A | ||
| Cardiff | A |
They’ll certainly need to improve their points per game if they are to keep their place in the title challenge – City and Chelsea won’t let up – but if they maintain the consistency that’s brought them this far, that Champions League place should be a reality come May.
Heck, they might even beat Arsenal to third place.
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