After some dramatic high jinks in the quarter finals this week, it’s easy to make the case that Europe’s top four clubs make up the final four as the Champions League reached the semi-final stage.
German giants Bayern Munich – already crowned Bundesliga champions with 6 games to play – will take on La Liga champions-in-waiting Barcelona; while, in the other tie, Spanish defending champions Real Madrid face up against Borussia Dortmund, German champions in both 2011 and 2012.
And it’s not only domestic laurels that make these sides outstanding; their recent form in Europe also stands them in good stead. Barcelona, champions in 2009 and 2011, will be playing in a record 6th consecutive semi-final; Real Madrid return to the last four for the third straight year; and Bayern Munich were finalists – losing both times – in 2010 and 2012. Even Dortmund, who haven’t gone this far since they were defending champions in 1998, have already proved their mettle this season, beating both Real Madrid and Manchester City to finish top of their group, and remain the only unbeaten team in this year’s Champions League.
The Bayern – Barcelona looks, on paper at least, the bigger of the two clashes. The Catalan giants have undoubtedly been the team of the era – some say of all-time – dominating in both style and substance over the last 5 years and boasting some of the game’s best ever players in the likes of Xavi, Andres Iniesta and the mercurial Lionel Messi. Yet, it’s fair to say they have been far from their best this year, needing to dig deep to get past both AC Milan and Paris St Germain in the last two rounds. The trademark metronomic passing and relentless pressing, key attributes of their success, have slipped somewhat in recent months, consequently leaving a defence ravaged by injury and illness – to Carles Puyol and Eric Abidal respectively – often vulnerable to the quick counter attack. Perhaps the long absence through illness of Tito Villanova has allowed standards to slip, but a side that commands a 13 point lead in La Liga is hardly in crisis. If there’s one positive, it’s that Barcelona, hitherto able to overcome through excellent execution, have been able to use other attributes – character, determination and pure grit – to pull through some trying situations. And of course, they have Messi, who, despite nursing a hamstring injury, once again proved his value to the Barca cause in that PSG match in midweek. His two goals against Milan also helped inspire the 4-0 comeback win in the 2nd round.
They’ll certainly need him fit if they are to overcome a Bayern Munich team that, for me, are currently the most complete in Europe. The first 45 minutes of their 1st leg quarter final against Juventus was a stunningly breathtaking display of attacking football, the only concern was that they had just the one goal to show for it. Indeed, the ease with which they dismissed the Italian champions over two legs was testament to their all-round strength. Bayern were good enough to reach the final last year, and should have won, but they’ve built on that and look even stronger – and deeper - now. The arrival of Brazilian centre back Dante has tightened up the back line; Javi Martinez provides much needed competition and cover for Luis Gustavo in midfield; and, upfront, the mobility and all-round play of Croat Mario Mandzukic has left last year’s top scorer Mario Gomez (40 goals in all competitions) cooling his heels – and hungry – on the sidelines. Add to that the measured distribution of Bastian Schweinsteiger, the creativity of Toni Kroos, the energy and versatility of Tomas Muller and the trickery and pace of Arjen Robben and Frenchman Franck Ribery, a man playing some of the best football of his career, and it’s clear to see why Bayern, on their day, would be pretty tough to contain.
It’s never easy to bet against Barcelona – especially with the 2nd leg scheduled for the Nou Camp. Yet, their defensive frailties and Messi’s injury troubles mean they are not as strong as usual. Let’s face it; even with a fit Messi, Barca would face a real test in this Bayern side. But that’s as much a testament to the strength of the German champions, as it is of Barca’s perceived weakness. Let’s not forget, the Barca side that started against PSG last week, without Messi, still included eight players who started for Spain at the last World Cup and/or at Euro 2012. (For the sticklers: Jordi Alba didn’t play at the World Cup and David Villa missed the Euros). That big game experience will serve them in good stead.
All told, this tie could hinge on two questions:
First, how much will Bayern miss the suspended Mandzukic in the first leg at the Allianz Arena? Gomez scores more goals than the Croatia international, but cannot match his mobility and work-rate – both important for shutting down Barcelona’s intricate build-up play
How fit will Messi be? His game-changing cameo against PSG showed how much Barca depends on his physical and psychological influence, but Bayern will be a far bigger challenge and the stronger Messi is, the better for Barcelona.
I never predict these things accurately anyway, but I think we are in for two intriguing, close-run, semi-final games, and if the Bavarians can find the goals to crown their relentless attacking play, they’ll deny Barca and book their place in a second consecutive final.
Next: Real Madrid v Borussia Dortmund
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