It comes down to Spain v Italy as Euro 2012 wraps up in Kiev on Sunday evening. But before I get into the whole “who will win” and what not, it’s worth noting one key thing. There’s often a fine line between victory and defeat in championships of this kind.
Strategy and tactics aside, these things often come down one or two key moments over the course of a match. History seldom recalls this though. Spain will be playing for a unique place in the history books – three straight major titles – on Sunday, and have been unbeaten in the knockout phase of a World Cup or Euro since France put them out in the second round of the World Cup in 2006.
In the light of that, and the seeming aura of invincibility that seems to surround this team, it’s perhaps hard to recall the many pitfalls that they narrowly escaped along that journey. We all think about that successful 2008 team now, yet they weren’t that super in the quarter final clash with Italy, which they only won after another nervy penalty shoot out. They were worthy winners against Germany in the final, but for once the Germans dominated possession and had their chances. But it came down to one moment of determined brilliance from Fernando Torres to win the cup.
In the same vein, pundits have repeatedly criticised Spain for a litany of failings at this finals. I believe the essential thrust of the argument is that the defending champions haven’t done enough to put opponents away in their 5 matches to date. The insinuation is that they have been below par and are yet to completely dominate any match so far. There is some truth in that, but to me, the criticism suggests that they had been consistently dominant in the past, sweeping all before them on their way to the last two titles.
Yet, when we cast our minds back to the World Cup in South Africa, Spain hardly blew any one away on their way to the final. Indeed, they were in immediate danger of elimination after losing the very first match to Switzerland. Then, after winning their next two matches, they negotiated a series of tight 1-0 wins – 4 in a row - before claiming the World Cup.
There were lots of narrow escapes along that path too, not least in a well-contested quarter final clash with Paraguay when, first Nelson Valdez had a goal disallowed – some say wrongly – for a borderline offside call; and then Iker Casillas stopped Oscar Cardozo’s penalty after 60 minutes to keep Spain in the game. Indeed, had Holland’s Arjen Robben put away the couple of chances that fell his way towards the end of regulation time in the final, we wouldn’t be talking about a Spanish era today.
And so into another final we go. Spain, as I believe they have done in the past, have found just enough to get through tight elimination games, and now face an Italian side that has slowly gained everyone’s admiration as the tournament as progressed. Cesare Prandelli’s tactical flexibility has been well taken on board by a squad of determined, experienced and talented players, and as they proved in their semi-final defeat of Germany, the Azzurri boast a commendable mix of defensive steel, midfield graft and clinical finishing to trouble the best of teams. Much has been made of the guile of Andrea Pirlo and the unpredictable Mario Balotelli, but the other bits of this team are just as important. Gigi Buffon in goal is as good as any ‘keeper in the world; Daniele de Rossi brings tireless running and versatility to midfield and Antonio Cassano – surprisingly ignored amidst “Mariomania” – can be a tricky customer on his day. I expect Italy to carry on as Croatia and Portugal before them and look to deny Spain the space to play their short passing game – at least anywhere near their penalty area. Pirlo will be crucial again, as one well-placed pass off his right peg is enough to set up the most cutting counter attack.
Enough has been written about Spain. Their passing game remains the hallmark of all that they do, even if opponents seldom make things easy for them anymore. That has meant the hub of their play has been pushed back and Xabi Alonso now sees more of the ball than Xavi. That`s not necessarily a bad thing – Alonso`s having a great tournament. The one missing spark from their teams of the past is the dynamic wing play of Sergio Ramos, now playing alongside Pique in central defence. For all his industry, Arbeloa just doesn`t carry the same offensive threat.
Four big questions:
Will Spain change their approach to stop Pirlo? I doubt that. Such is la Roja’s belief in their principles that they seldom change for anyone. Nor will they leave him with all the room in the world though – a la England. One thing that`s usually left forgotten in discussions about Spain is how well they defend as a team. True, their dominant possession is a defensive tool in itself, but when they do lose the ball, they work extremely hard – and very well – to win it back.
Will del Bosque go striker-less again? He says he`s starting with three attackers but I don`t think it matters. They`ve played both ways so far and it`s been the same story. There may be changes though. David Silva has struggled to make an impression of late and Pedro more than made a case for a starting role after his semi-final cameo on Wednesday, and his combination with Jordi Alba brought the Spanish left flank to life in extra time.
Which Balotelli will show up – the focused finisher or mad Mario? Who knows? I doubt Balotelli himself knows the answer to that one. I get the feeling he is aware of what`s at stake here and should behave – yet, if Spain over-dominate possession, and Italian frustration sets in anything can happen. On the other hand, a focused Mario could be the hero of the day.
As to who will win this one, it could go either way, but I won`t chicken out of making a prediction. Italy go in as underdogs – but not by much. In fact, many pundits are backing them to beat Spain. For me, they also have one thing going for them: no team has ever achieved what Spain is aiming for – three straight major titles AND back to back Euro titles. There`s a good reason why that`s never happened before – it`s damned hard – and the enormity of it may just prove beyond even this Spanish team.
But, I find it incredibly hard to bet against Spain. They`ve beat the odds so often over the past four years, surmounting every obstacle and proving they are a great team over and over again. I think they`ll pull this one off and enter a special place in the history books.
Oh, there was one more question. Who will win the battle of the beards – Daniele de Rossi or Xabi Alonso?
Enjoy.
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