It’s the final no one predicted. Not back in August and September, when Mario Gomez’s load of goals shot Bayern to the top of the Bundesliga; and surely not in the autumn, as Andres Villas Boas struggled to impose his high-line defense on a struggling Chelsea side.
Then came the New Year, and this final looked even less likely. Bayern’s early season swagger was gone; the Bavarians left in the wake of a streaking Borussia Dortmund in Germany, and Chelsea’s troubles had escalated after a 3-1 defeat in Naples had cost AVB the top job.
Even after they both reached the semi-finals in April, the fact that the two Spanish giants stood in the way of a Chelsea-Bayern final made it seem even less likely.
Yet here we are. Come Saturday in the impressive Allianz Arena in Munich, Bayern will play Chelsea to decide which club would have earned the right to be called Europe’s best for the next year.
Given what we’ve already seen this year, it seems almost crazy to name favourites in the Champions League this year, yet there can be no getting away from the fact that Bayern, playing in their own stadium, will start this one with the expectations heavily stacked on their shoulders. Chelsea, on the other hand, have already survived some incredible odds to make it this far and would be forgiven for thinking their name is surely on the Cup this year. Two cases in point: Ashley Cole’s last ditch block on the goal-line in Naples prevented the Italians from taking what would have been momentous 4-1 lead in the 2nd round; and who can forget that remarkable night in Camp Nou when Leo Messi, of all people, smacked a penalty off the Chelsea cross bar with the tie hanging in the balance.
But it may well be the suspensions that make all the difference on Saturday. Both sides will be missing players – Bayern three, Chelsea four – and how they replace them could heavily influence the destination of the big cup. Bayern will be without left back David Alaba, centre back Holger Badstuber and holding midfielder Luiz Gustavo. They’ll have plenty of cover in defence, with Anatoliy Tymoshenko, Diego Contento and Rafinha in reserve, but the energy and defensive nous of Gustavo in midfield may be harder to replicate. Toni Kroos would likely step back alongside Bastian Schweinsteiger, with Thomas Muller starting further ahead in a very attack minded midfield.
Chelsea have to replace defenders John Terry and Branislav Ivanovic, as well as midfielders Raul Meireles and Ramires, and with two centre backs in Gary Cahill and David Luiz still fighting for fitness, and defensive options restricted to the likes of Paolo Ferreira, Sam Hutchison, and maybe even Michael Essien, theirs could well be a very make-shift – or unfit - central defence in Munich.
Ramires would also be a huge loss on the offensive side. The Brazilian played a key part in the Barcelona win – and again in Chelsea’s FA Cup win – and Roberto di Matteo will have to plan smartly to fill the void. The veterans – Ashley Cole, Frank Lampard and Didier Drogba – will be highly motivated in what is more than likely a last chance at European glory, and Juan Mata should find room to impose himself in midfield, especially without the cloying attentions of the suspended Gustavo.
In all, Bayern look better equipped to cope with their suspensions, and if Chelsea’s defensive troubles continue it is hard to imagine them keeping out Frank Ribery, Mario Gomez and Arjen Robben, especially in front of a loud partisan crowd. Then again, they somehow got past Barcelona – with 10 men – in the Nou Camp, and will likely look to the same defensive counter-attacking strategy in Munich. In Didier Drogba and a resurgent Fernando Torres, Chelsea certainly have the tools for that direct, quick transition game, and if they score first – or meet a Bayern side weighed down by expectation – it could be their day.
I think Bayern have the edge though, and should win this one 2-1 or 3-1.
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