It’s a well-worn sporting cliché: you don’t win anything without some luck. Last weekend’s quarter final clashes sure underlined that point. No, I am not referring to Germany’s 4-0 annihilation of erstwhile favourites Argentina – no luck there, just a well planned and executed dismantling of Diego Maradona’s best laid plans.
For the other three ties though, fortune certainly smiled broadly on the victors. Okay, I will not argue that Holland was anything less than deserving of the win that knocked Brazil (another erstwhile favourite) out of the finals, but the tide only turned in their favour after goalkeeper Julio Cesar – with a lot of help from Felipe Melo – made a mess of what should have been a routine catch from Wesley Sneijder’s hopeful cross. There wasn’t even a single Dutch player anywhere near the ball! That the Brazilians then allowed Sneijder, the smallest man on the field, to head home from a corner kick wasn’t down to luck though – just poor defending.
That, of course, was nothing compared to the dramatic scenes that would herald Ghana’s exit at the hands of Uruguay in Friday’s late game. In the end, the Black Stars’ inability to stick the ball in the net - from open play over 120 minutes, and from the spot thereafter – proved their undoing. Asamoah Gyan’s unfortunate miss in the last minute of extra time broke hearts all over Africa and proved the slice of luck that Uruguay needed to sail through to the last four.
Much as since been made of the desperate handball offence that denied Dominic Adiyiah a winning goal and gifted Ghana the penalty from which Gyan missed. There have been suggestions that Luis Suarez - who got a red card and a one game suspension for his trouble – hasn’t been adequately punished for his unsportsmanlike action. I am not one of those calling for more sanctions though, and I am quite glad that Fifa has refused the urge to yield to such an emotional reaction to Ghana’s sad exit. Sure, Suarez’s action was deplorable, but what player wouldn’t have done exactly the same thing? Besides, aren’t a red card and a penalty sufficient punishment? That’s all you’d get for tripping up a player clean through on goal, and I don’t see how this is any different. The main issue really is that Gyan missed; had he scored we wouldn’t even be having this discussion.
But I digress; Spain certainly took their time seeing off the challenge of plucky Paraguay on Sunday, David Villa’s goal finally arriving 7 minutes from time, but despite dominating possession as usual they could have easily been two down by then. First, Nelson Valdez had a goal wrongly ruled out, ostensibly for offside, and then Iker Casillas guessed right to stop Cardozo’s penalty right on the hour to keep Spain in the game. Of course, two minutes after that, Xabi Alonso also had his twice taken penalty stopped to cap what must be the most exciting three minute spell of this World Cup. What I don’t get though, is how Alonso’s first successful effort could have been stricken off for encroachment, while Cardozo didn’t get a do-over even though there were just as many players in the box when his penalty was stopped at the other end.
It’s another of those infuriating refereeing inconsistencies that have plagued football for years. The one that really gets my goat came in the Argentina v Germany game and could ultimately hurt the Germans in their semi final clash against Spain. In the 5th minute, after Germany broke up an Argentina attack, winger Angel di Maria clearly stretched out his left hand, like a goalkeeper, to knock down Phillip Lahm’s attempted pass. Referee Ravshan Irmatov gave the foul but only verbally warned di Maria for what was clearly a bookable offence. Yet, midway through the second half, Thomas Muller attempted to chest a ball just on the edge of the German area, only for Jabulani to bounce up against his left arm – which was normally positioned in line with his torso. Irmatov again gave the foul, only this time he flashed a yellow card Muller’s way, ensuring the young star – scorer of four goals in these finals – will miss Tuesday’s semi final.
Speaking of that semi final clash, a rematch of the Euro 2008 final won by Spain, it’s another that would fit snugly under the too-close-to-call column. The Spaniards came into the World Cup as one of the firm favourites, but it’s the Germans that have been the more convincing side over the past three weeks and – even without Muller – appear to have the edge over a Spanish team that has only seldom played as well as we know they can. It should make for a nice contrast in styles – Spain’s patient, sometimes over-ponderous approach, to Germany’s rapid-fire, all-out attacking style. The German attack will come up against a sterner defence than they faced in the last two rounds, and midfield schemers Bastian Schweinsteiger and Mesut Ozil will have to be at their best to dominate Spain in the engine room. Top scorer David Villa will again be Spain’s key man upfront, having scored 5 of their six goals here. But Germany will know better than to just focus on him; the likes of Xavi, Iniesta and Alonso can do damage from midfield and this might just be the occasion for Fernando Torres to finally live up to his huge reputation. I think Spain will dominate possession again, without creating a ton of chances, and this game could well be decided by how well they keep the ball and deny Germany those quick counter attacks. We could be in for a long night.
Holland will be expected to see off Uruguay, but I doubt anyone will be writing off a team that boasts the shooting skills of Diego Forlan. The Atletico striker has three goals to his name so far, including two of the better goals seen at this World Cup, and there’ll be a lot riding on his abilities, especially with the aforementioned Suarez missing. The rage in the Dutch squad is all about Arjen Robben, yet it’s the diminutive Sneijder (4 goals) that has proved the team’s talisman. Mark van Bommel as also been solid in defensive midfield, but Uruguay has his match in the tireless Diego Perez and they also proved they have the depth to persevere in defence after losing both first choice centre backs against Ghana. This will probably be a closer game than most people expect, but if the Dutch can shake off the pressures that come with being favourites they have enough guile to book a place in the final.
I should probably stay away from predictions this time – too hard to factor for luck - but I do expect Holland to scale through. As for the other one; my heart says Spain, my head Germany.
For my sanity and well being, I’ll just try and keep the peace.
Enjoy.
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