This post should have appeared here over a week ago, after the first two rounds of group matches. Technical problems made this impossible but I've decided to post it anyway.
As I sit through what is looking likely to end up a surprise draw between Algeria and England, I can’t help but think that perhaps focus on organisation and teamwork may have just narrowed the gap between smaller nations and the more established ones in world football. After watching one week of football at the World Cup here in South Africa, it’s definitely a feeling that’s growing stronger and stronger. Without even dwelling on the real upsets – Switzerland over Spain comes to mind – of the 21 games played so far, only three can be considered a real trouncing (Germany 4 Australia 0; Argentina 4 South Korea 1; Uruguay 3 South Africa 0). Of the rest, there have been six draws and only two of the wins have had a two-goal margin. Of course, some of that is down to early tournament caution, or in the case of Nigeria excellent goalkeeping, and things should open up as the first round progresses. But I certainly think that results like South Africa 1 Mexico 1, Ivory Coast 0 Portugal 0 and Serbia 0 Ghana 1 are proof positive that this is going to be close run thing, and most of the groups won’t be settled till the very last round of matches.
Tactically speaking, its clear that the 4-2-3-1 has fully taken the football world hostage now, with several of the teams on show here opting for the two holding midfielders and one striker that seems to suggest – and indeed many have concluded to mean – a negative mindset. Yet, as I have tried to argue in the past, this system need not be a defensive or cautious one. How it works out ultimately depends on the philosophy of the coach, the quality of players available and their ability to execute the game plan.
Germany’s impressive start to the tournament probably best illustrates the point. In their opening match against Australia, they set up with two deep lying midfielders in Bastian Schweinsteiger and Sami Khedira, but theirs is clearly an attacking mindset, with the impressive Mesut Ozil threading passes through to the quick pair of widemen, Lukas Podolski and Thomas Muller, as well as striker Milo Klose, and the whole team pretty much looking to get forward at every turn. Spain, the pre-tournament favourites, didn’t get off to such a great start, but they also set up in like fashion – Xabi Alonso and Busquets sitting deep, and David Villa alone upfront – but you can hardly call their approach cautious. Nevertheless, it was quite refreshing to see Uruguay shake off their defensive reputation by lining up Diego Forlan behind two strikers – Luis Suarez and Edison Cavani – to great effect in their 3-0 thumping of hosts South Africa.
It’s much too early to reach conclusions as to the likely destination of the cup as things tend to change drastically in world cup finals. Germany made the early impression with that 4-0 spanking of Australia, but they’ve been pegged back by the narrow loss to Serbia and will now need a result against Ghana on Wednesday night to make progress sure. Jogi Low’s team play with pace, purpose and real attacking intent but the Serbs have proved that they are in what I consider the most competitive of the groups. I am not one of those who consider Serbia’s win an upset though. The Serbs are a very good team comprising some of Europe’s best players and despite losing to Ghana they might yet make it to the next round.
Argentina have also looked strong without really breaking sweat and have all but tied up a second round place after beating both Nigeria and South Korea. With the players at Diego Maradona’s disposal they’ll prove a hard nut for any team here and are probably the early favourites as we stand, although I do think their defence can be breached by teams better than they’ve faced so far.
Brazil will also be considered one of the real contenders here, but they still have some convincing to do, having labored hard to get past a well organised North Korea side. Then again, Dunga’s team are probably never going to win the style plaudits –they are more about efficiency these days. That honour seems to sit well with Spain though, and they were a joy to watch even as they lost that first game to Switzerland. They’ll have to return to winning ways against Honduras on Monday though; else they’ll be facing a first round elimination that would prove the biggest shock of the finals.
England too hang on a thread, needing to beat Slovenia on Wednesday after struggling to two unconvincing draws against USA and Algeria, but they at least still have their destiny in their hands. Not so France, who have been quite disjointed in their two games so far and are yet to score. They will need to beat the hosts and then pray for a high margin win in the Mexico-Uruguay match if they are not repeat their 2002 feat and crash out early.
As for Nigeria, they’ve played like a team that just got introduced to its coach and his tactics only a few weeks ago. Oh, wait a minute…they did only just meet their coach a few weeks ago. But that’s a different story altogether, and I will get into it a little later. Suffice to say; they might yet get to the last 16 if they can beat South Korea on Tuesday and Argentina do the business – as expected – against Greece. That would at least give us long suffering fans something to smile about – especially if you are making the long trek to Durban like yours truly – but, even if by some stroke of fortune that happens, I doubt this team will be leaving any lasting impressions on this finals – except, of course, the outstanding goalkeeping of Vincent Enyeama.
I’ll be back.
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