No Advantage For World Cup Africans

The World Cup comes to Africa for the first time next year, but I am not convinced South Africa 2010 will increase the probability of an African country finally winning the big one.

It’s not that I intend to rain on anyone’s parade, but way too much has been made of Africa’s World Cup chances purely on the strength of the finals holding on the continent for the first time. Of course, hosts South Africa will be lifted by playing on familiar territory, in a climate they’re used to and in front of large partisan crowds, but will Ghana, Nigeria, Ivory Coast and Algeria really have an edge over their group opponents purely as a consequence of playing in Johannesburg, Durban and Pretoria? I am not convinced, and there are two reasons why.

First, the climate doesn’t offer any extra advantage to these countries, all from west and North Africa. If anything, the South African winter may provide more of an edge for the Europeans and South Americans. Of course, all the African teams are staffed by Europe based pros now so they shouldn’t have a problem adjusting, but clearly the weather will not give them any kind of edge.

Second, I don’t think the African representatives will have that much of an edge with supporters either. For one thing, it’s still unclear how many African fans will be making the long trek to South Africa – probably not a lot, given the sheer size of the continent and the relatively high costs of air travel. We are quite unlikely to see the kind of influx Germany experienced from neighbouring countries like Holland, Italy and France at the last finals. For all we know, there may well be more fans travelling from Europe for the finals than from within the continent. South African fans can be counted on to turn out in large numbers, at least when Bafana Bafana play. I’d be surprised if they came out in significant numbers to cheer on the other African countries.

Nevertheless, this may well turn out to be one of Africa’s better showings at the mundial – even if the draw could have been kinder.

No one would argue that the continent’s biggest hope is Ivory Coast, yet they have again been dropped into one of the toughest groups, alongside Brazil, Portugal and North Korea. The Elephants boast an impressive array of stars, led by the experienced bunch of Didier Drogba, the Toure brothers and Didier Zokora, as well as an emerging younger cadre represented by Lille youngster Gervinho, but they’ll need to be at their best to secure one of the two spots in Group G. Of course, Brazil and Portugal also know they’ll need to be on their game to see off this Ivory Coast team.

Ghana will be no pushovers either, especially if their midfield tandem of Michael Essien, Sulley Muntari and Stephen Appiah stay in-form and healthy. They remain a little light-weight in attack and will be hoping that Under-20 World Cup winning sensation Dominic Adiyiah matures in time to support Asamoah Gyan and Matthew Amoah up front. But they’ve got an even tougher draw, in a more evenly matched Group D where they face Australia, Germany and Serbia.

Oddly enough, I think the host country – home advantage and all – have the slimmest chance of progressing. South Africa, in Group A with Uruguay, Mexico and France, have a group that both the Elephants and Black Stars would have loved, and although they will have improved by June, I doubt that the midfield promptings of Stephen Pienaar and Kagisho Dikgacoi, the defensive nous of Matthew Booth and Aaron Mokoena, and all the vuvuzelas in Jo’burg will be enough to see them through to the next round.

Cameroon return to the finals after missing out last time and the Indomitable Lions will fancy their chances against Holland, Denmark and Japan. Not only do they boast, in Samuel Eto’o, one of the very best strikers in world football, he also leads a fine cast of accomplished players – Idris Kameni, Jean Makoun, Stephane Mbia, Alex Song and Achille Emana – and they should ruffle more than a few feathers in South Africa.

Algeria will have to continue their giant-killing ways to get out of Group C, where England awaits them alongside the dangerous but under-rated duo of USA and Slovenia. A team with few star names, the Algerians persevere on their strong work ethic and one-for-all attitude. Nevertheless, experienced pros like Rafik Saifi, Karim Ziani and Nadir Belhadj will give their opponents a few worries come June.

Then there’s Nigeria’s Super Eagles, drawn in an eerily familiar group with Argentina and Greece – two of the teams they faced in 1994 – as well as the tricky South Koreans. Of course, Greece, champions of Europe in 2004, are far from the whipping-boys they were 16 years ago and that should make for a keenly contested group. Then again, the Eagles are not the Super team they were in ‘94 either and were hardly impressive in the qualifiers. A team blessed with a surfeit of attacking options – Obafemi Martins, Aiyegbeni Yakubu, Victor Obinna, Ike Uche, Osaze Odemwingie and Chinedu Obasi– has looked severely handicapped by a lack of creative types in midfield and a general lack of cohesion. If coach Shaibu Amodu can coax a performance from this bunch at the Nations Cup finals, that would bode well for their chances in June.

Still, a lot could happen between now and June and the Nations Cup finals – scheduled for Angola in January - may well reveal much about what to expect in June.

We’ll wait and see.