I know it’s already three rounds old, but I think this is exactly the right time to talk about the new English Premiership season. For one thing, we’ve had a chance to see all the pretenders in action – I know, it’s still early days and we haven’t seen enough – and, for another, all the transfers are done now. Or what would have been the point of talking about the Spurs attack – only for Dimitar Berbatov to jump ship at the last minute. Or, indeed, of hyping Chelsea’s credentials, only for that “inevitable” Robinho deal to suddenly go awry. And don’t even get me started on the Gareth Barry-Aston Villa-Liverpool tug-of-war.
That’s not to say surprises can’t still happen – injuries, sackings and all that – and, of course, come January, that transfer window opens again. By then though, we’ll be half way through the race – and it could very well be over bar the shouting.
But I seriously doubt this is going to be one of those seasons. At best, we may have only three or four clubs still in contention at that stage, but a January one-horse race appears very unlikely.
The big four seem to have carved out a league of their own at the top of the Premiership and I wouldn’t be looking beyond those clubs for this year’s champions. Of course, the shape of that top four may well change with the new cash infusion at Manchester City but - Robinho notwithstanding - I don’t think this’ll be the year.
Defending champions Manchester United will again be the team to beat, despite very little transfer activity. But it’s not like they had that much to fix; their one problem area has been upfront – Ronaldo’s free-scoring sufficed last season - and Dimitar Berbatov should prove a more than adequate foil for the likes of Wayne Rooney and Carlos Tevez. Sir Alex has spent heavily and wisely over the last few seasons – spending megabucks on Michael Carrick, Owen Hargreaves, Nani, Anderson and Tevez – and his best piece of business in the off-season was keeping Ronaldo at Old Trafford.
Chelsea have made the best signings of the lot, bringing in Jose Bosingwa at right back and the creative Deco in midfield to fill the two main problem areas from last term. Didier Drogba’s injury still leaves them below par in the early running, but Chelsea fans must be concerned about the lack of width in midfield and I still wonder how Scolari is going to fit Michael Ballack, Frank Lampard, Deco, Michael Essien and John Obi Mikel into his midfield.
I think Arsenal will struggle to reach the heights of last season when, in truth, they over-achieved. Last season’s squad could have taken a step forward this year, but Arsene Wenger’s inability to hold on to Alex Hleb and Matthieu Flamini has weakened his squad and not even the arrival of the skilful Samir Nasri and the growing influence of Theo Walcott can paper over the cracks. They still have a soft underbelly in central defence and Flamini’s departure doesn’t help matters. Much will once again depend on the superb Cesc Fabregas, who faded slightly last term, the form of Emmanuel Adebayor, who spent the summer trying to get away, and the fitness of the fragile Robin van Persie.
At my beloved Liverpool, Rafa Benitez would have been pretty cross that the long-running Gareth Barry deal eventually foundered, yet he starts another season with an improved squad – and with the in-form Xabi Alonso still on the staff. Robbie Keane offers new options upfront, Albert Riera brings much-needed left-footed width, and Andrea Dossena replaces the departed John Arne Riise at left back. More importantly, Liverpool have kept last season’s spine – Reina, Carragher, Skrtel, Mascherano, Alonso, Gerrard, Torres – and if Benitez can sort out the right formation – and quickly – this should be a much better season for the Reds. Last season’s largely successful 4-2-3-1 formation will have to change to accommodate Keane though, and there’s a risk that the players may not adapt quickly enough.
As for the chasing pack, the name on every lip will now be Manchester City, especially with the surprise arrival of Robinho. But I think Man City started the stronger anyway, even before the arrival of the skilful Brazilian. They’ve bought very smartly and if the new faces settle quickly it will be a different City this season. The Argentine full back Pablo Zabaleta arrives fresh from the Olympics to replace Spurs-bound Vedrun Corluka; Belgian defender Vincent Kompany, from Hamburg, is one of the best young players in Europe; striker Jo, from CSKA Moscow, is another excellent Brazilian prospect; and Shaun Wright-Phillips, back after two wasted years on the Chelsea bench, should regain his confidence in familiar climes. Plus, Man City already boast some decent players – Elano, Martin Petrov, Micah Richards – and new manager Mark Hughes should thrive in the new air of stability.
For sheer entertainment, I wouldn’t look too far from Aston Villa either. Martin O’Neill’s side play exciting attacking soccer and with Barry staying, they’ve kept most of the team that finished 6th last term. Luke Young and Nickey Shorey arrive to fill weaknesses at full back, and James Milner will offer new width on the right, to complement the efforts of the impressive Ashley Young on the left. Stilian Petrov should be a key player this season, after taking his time settling in after joining from Celtic two years ago. His partnership with Barry in central midfield looks a promising one for Villa.
Spurs will be interesting to watch again – if only for the tactical manoeuvrings of Spanish coach Juande Ramos. They’ve lost Keane and Berbatov, who scored over 40 goals between them last season, and it remains to be seen if Marcus Bent and Roman Pavlyuchenko can replace that duo. If centre backs Ledley King and Jon Woodgate stay healthy, they should be a bit more secure at the back, and new arrivals, Luka Modric and David Bentley will need to settle in quickly. I think they have too many new faces though, and only the fearless tinkering of Ramos will keep them competitive.
Everton look like they will struggle to match last season’s 5th place finish – despite the acumen of manager David Moyes and the goals of Yakubu Aiyegbeni. Lee Carsley’s departure leaves an experience vacuum in central midfield, even with the arrival of new boys Segundo Castillo and Marouane Fellaini. Louis Saha should contribute on the goal scoring end – if he stays healthy – as should Tim Cahill – if he stays healthy.
FA Cup holders Portsmouth are also depleted in midfield, having let Pedro Mendes and Ghanaian Sulley Muntari leave in the off season. Yet, Harry Redknapp knows a thing or two about putting together a competitive side - even if the signing of Younes Kaboul makes one wonder – and Pompey should be in the running for the UEFA Cup places. Jermaine Defoe is a proven goal scorer and should benefit from playing with the towering Peter Crouch. Makes me wonder what’ll become of Nigeria captain Nwankwo Kanu.
For the rest, it’ll be business as usual, from mid-table respectability to relegation-battle mediocrity.
As for who will win it all, you’ll get no prediction from me – not this early in the season, anyway. I hope it is Liverpool, even if the odds suggest otherwise, and the first test will come up at Anfield on Saturday when Manchester United come calling. A win would be a nice confidence boost and three points in the bag, but it won’t make a season – and a loss, unpalatable as that may sound, wouldn’t be the end of the world either
I’ll be watching.
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