Beijing 2008 Final: Happy To Be Wrong This Time

This is a situation I seldom find myself in, but there’s no question that I’ll be watching the Olympic final on Saturday fervently hoping that my pre-tournament prediction doesn’t pan out.

Argentina – the Albiceleste – will be highly favoured to see of Nigeria’s Dream Team IV – I hate that tag – yet Samson Siasia’s side have more than proved that they are worth their place in this final.

From that goalless start against Holland, to the comprehensive destruction of Belgium in Tuesday’s semi final, the Nigerian team has shown remarkable progress, getting better as the tournament as rolled on and they’ll certainly have to be at their very best to achieve what would be an ever greater feat than that famous 1996 victory in Atlanta.

And, for those who need reminding, that was quite the feat. It’s easy to think back now and marvel at that original Dream Team (that tag again) - JayJay Okocha, Nwankwo Kanu, Daniel Amokachi and co – and figure it must have been easy for that strong squad to overturn both Brazil and Argentina on their way to gold. Of course, we know better. As with today’s squads, Brazil and Argentina lined up several established internationals back then – Ronaldo, Aldair, Roberto Carlos, Rivaldo and Bebeto for Brazil; and Crespo, Lopez, Ortega, Veron, Zanetti and Ayala, for Argentina.

Yet, the Nigerians somehow overcame against all the odds. That can only give the class of 2008 much needed encouragement.

Samson Siasia’s side may lack the star quality of their forebears, but they are a team in every sense of the word. Sure, they have quality performers all over the field – from the shot-stopping ability of Ambrose Vanzekin in goal, through the calm yet gritty defending of Dele Adeleye and the tidy ball-winning of Sani Kaita, to the drive and finishing of captain Victor Nsofor up front – but for all their promise these lads pale in comparison to their more accomplished counterparts.

Then again, the key to this team’s success is superb organisation, teamwork and the all-for-one attitude instilled by the continuity of years of playing together and the will of their smart coach. And for that, all Nigeria supporters should be grateful. The sight of Nsofor, deep in his own box, making a defensive clearance, and of Chinedu Ogbuke relentlessly chasing down Belgian midfielders was surely a joy to see, and that fighting attitude can only bode well as the Eagles look to overturn a highly-skilled Argentina team.

Siasia’s sophisticated 4-2-3-1 formation emphasizes width, pace, precision passing and hard work and that might just be enough to bridge the individual quality gap. Their key men will have to be at their best though and, for one thing, that means the central defensive pairing of Adeleye and Onyekachi Apam must keep their concentration and avoid rash tackles in and around the box. Kaita’s performance in the midfield holding role will also be crucial, but it’s upfront, where they boast the trickery, pace and finishing of Nsofor, and the incisive Peter Odemwingie, that Nigeria can really hurt Argentina.

Make no mistake, though; this final will be the Eagles greatest test yet. Argentina have won the last two U-20 World Youth championships – beating virtually the same Nigerian team in Holland three years ago – and this Olympic squad includes a healthy mix of those two sides, plus a few top class additions.

Those U-20 grads include two of the best young forwards on the world stage today. Barcelona’s Leo Messi, a fixture on anyone’s shortlist for world’s best player, lit up the 2005 finals and scored the two goals – both penalties - that beat Nigeria in the final; and his compatriot Sergio Aguero, from Spain’s Atletico Madrid, played in the last two finals, and was top scorer and best player in Canada last year. Of course, the Nigerian team will remember these two – not fondly - from their last meeting: Messi was fouled by Adeleye for the first penalty; while it was a trip on Aguero – by Monday James – that set up the second.

The over-age selections add even more quality. Take Liverpool’s Javi Mascherano, a star of the gold winning team in Athens four years ago and in my view the best defensive midfielder in world football. And then there’s the mercurial midfield maestro, Juan Roman Riquelme, a dead-ball specialist who also pulls the strings for the senior team.

If Nigeria have a reputation for fielding strong age-group sides, Argentina – with five of the last seven U-20 world cups in their kitty - boast an even greater pedigree, and it’s not for nothing that they’ll be considered clear favourites on Saturday. Or that I tipped them for gold from the start.

Sergio Batista’s team also lines up in the now ubiquitous 4-2-3-1 formation, with Mascherano and Real Madrid’s Fernando Gago sitting in front of a back line ably led by the highly-rated Ezequiel Garay. Riquelme, with his passing, and Messi, with his dribbling runs, will control the show in midfield while Aguero looks to finish off in the box.

I think it’ll be a great game to watch, not so much a contrast in styles but more a stage for the best of African and South American skill and guile to come to the fore, and history suggests we might see an Argentina penalty – they had one in the 1996 final, too.

The wise money certainly points to an Argentina victory – as does everything I know about this game. Yet, the wise money’s been known to be wrong – think 1996 – and, let’s face it: what do I really know about this beautiful, unpredictable game we call football?

We’ll talk after the game. I’ll either be right and sad, or wrong ………. and blissfully overjoyed.